this paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in indonesia. it assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. in so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of gdp to a monetary p...

Many financial time series processes appear subject to periodic structural changes in their dynamics. Regression relationships are often not robust to outliers nor stable over time, whilst the existence of changes in variance over time is well documented. This paper considers a vector autoregression subject to pseudocyclical structural changes. The parameters of a vector autoregression are mode...

This paper develops a forecasting model for important macroeconomic variables in the state of Indiana. In this study, we specify a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with Litterman’s prior. A comparison with the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model shows that BVAR improves forecast by reducing root mean square

We calculate the NAIRU for the U.S. in a framework where inflation and the unemployment rate can respond to each other. The NAIRU is defined as the component of the actual unemployment rate that is uncorrelated with inflation in the long run. Using a structural VAR approach, the NAIRU and core inflation can be estimated simultaneously. Our estimation results show that the NAIRU falls dramatical...