abstract successful presence of indian and pakistani rice in iran’s market due to having similar quality with the domestic rice, extensive advertisement, and good packaging has faced rice production in iran with a big challenge. assuming that the attractions of iranian consumers toward these imported rice varieties are a signal of changes in the preferences of the domestic consumers in favor of...

Abstract This article provides an estimation method to decompose monetary policy innovations into persistent and transitory components using the nonlinear Taylor rule proposed in Andolfatto, Hendry, Moran (2008) [Are inflation expectations rational? Journal of Monetary Economics , 55 406–422]. To use Kalman filter as optimal signal extraction technique, we a convenient reformulation for state e...

We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. This result is consistent with the economic approach to political transitions, where trans...

We develop a new quantile-based framework to study the nonlinear relationship between shocks to household earnings and consumption over the life cycle. Log-earnings are the sum of a general Markovian persistent component and a transitory innovation. Consumption is modeled as an age-dependent nonlinear function of assets and the two earnings components. We establish the nonparametric identificat...

We develop a flexible framework to study the nonlinear relationship between shocks to household earnings and consumption over the life cycle. Log-earnings are the sum of a general Markovian persistent component and a transitory innovation. Consumption is modelled as an age-dependent nonlinear function of assets and the two earnings components. We establish the nonparametric identification of th...

We develop an analytically tractable consumption-savings model for a liquidityconstrained agent who faces both permanent and transitory income shocks. We find that risk aversion and intertemporal substitution have very different effects on both consumption and the steady-state savings target. Moderate changes in risk aversion have large effects on consumption and buffer-stock savings. With perm...

The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to countryspecific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). To test the CERs, the auth...

Using a large linked employer-employee data set, this paper studies the extent to which employers insure workers against transitory and permanent firm-level shocks. Particular emphasis is given to the question of whether the amount of wage insurance depends on the nature of industrial relations. Adopting the identification strategy proposed by Guiso et al. (2005), it is shown that wage insuranc...

Economists and political scientists have argued that differences in the risk of civil conflict across countries and over time may partly reflect differences in the opportunity cost of participating in civil conflicts. One way to test for the opportunity-cost channel is to examine civil conflict risk following transitory income shocks. In this paper I propose two instrumentalvariables approaches...