and quantity indexes are calculated separately for components of GDP and therefore the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP growth is only approximately equal to the change in the GDP price index. With fixed-weights, the GDP deflator is defined as the ratio of nominal to real GDP and hence the gap between nominal and real GDP growth rates is precisely equal to the growth rate in the GDP ...

Recent time series methods are applied to the problem of forecasting New Zealand’s real GDP. Model selection is conducted within autoregressive (AR) and vector autoregressive (VAR) classes, allowing for evolution in the form of the models over time. The selections are performed using the Schwarz (1978) BIC and the Phillips-Ploberger (1996) PIC criteria. The forecasts generated by the data-deter...

The paper constructs monthly GDP nowcasts for Saudi Arabia by estimating a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) on panel of 272 variables over the period from January 2010 to June 2018. produced in this can accurately mimic growth rates Arabia, including non-oil sector. Our GDFM has outperformed other traditional models tracking business cycle Arabia. In our view, private sector provided sub...

This paper studies bank loans over the business cycles in Iran to determine the role of Iranian banks in stabilizing credit. By estimating the long-run relations using dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS estimators, the findings show that real bank lending is positively related to real GDP in the long-run providing evidences of the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. Hence, Iranian banking ...

We investigate business cycle dynamics for 26 countries, estimating a set of nonlinear models for real GDP where appropriate. We find a great deal of heterogeneity in the dynamics of real output growth across countries. At the same time, a common feature is the asymmetric response of real GDP to shocks and the tendency for negative real GDP shocks to be less persistent than positive real GDP sh...