in this paper semi-markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. semi-markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. in semi-markov models each zone can be considered as a state...

Many applications require forecasts for a hierarchy comprising a set of time series along with aggregates of subsets of these series. Hierarchical forecasting require not only good prediction accuracy at each level of the hierarchy, but also the coherency between different levels — the property that forecasts add up appropriately across the hierarchy. A fundamental limitation of prior research ...

 Abstract—Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would be difficult to develop a universal forecasting model dominating over other alternative models. Therefore, a novel multi-model combination (MMC) ap...

Probabilistic forecasting of high dimensional multivariate time series is a notoriously challenging task, both in terms computational burden and distribution modeling. Most previous work either makes simple assumptions or abandons modeling cross-series correlations. A promising line exploits scalable matrix factorization for latent-space forecasting, but limited to linear embeddings, unable mod...

Especially for drought periods, the higher the accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasting, the 9 more reliable the water supply from a dam. The article focuses on probabilistic forecasting of 10 seasonal inflow to reservoirs and determines estimates from the probabilistic seasonal inflow 11 according to drought forecast results. The probabilistic seasonal inflow was forecasted by a copula12 based...

the present paper deals with development of a simulation model for the performance evaluation of feed water system of a thermal power plant using markov birth-death process and probabilistic approach. in present paper, the feed water system consists of four subsystems. after drawing transition diagram for feed water system, differential equations are developed and then solved recursively using ...

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision making processes in the smart power gird for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form of quantiles, prediction intervals, or full predictive densities. Th...