The two-break unit root test of Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) is examined and found to suffer from bias and spurious rejections in the presence of structural breaks under the null. A two-break minimum LM unit root test is proposed as a remedy. The two-break LM test does not suffer from bias and spurious rejections and is mostly invariant to the size, location, and misspecification of the breaks. ...

In this note we discuss the paper on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2012). In particular we discuss issues related to forecast origins and forecast horizons when higher frequency exchange rate movements are predicted using lower frequency quarterly macroaggregates. JEL Nos.: C53, C12, C52

VIX Endeksi, piyasalardaki tedirginliği ve korku halini yansıttığı için piyasalarda oluşabilecek olan krizlerin öncü göstergesi olarak da bilinmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Endeksi’nin Türkiye’de yapılan kamu harcamaları gelirleri üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. bağlamda çalışmada, 1999-2021 dönemine ait Endeksi verileri analiz edilmiştir. Serilerin birim kök içerip içermediği Augmented Dicke...

This paper presents a Bayesian assessment of the likelihood of unit roots in the unemployment rates of 16 OECD countries. Bayesian techniques for detecting multiple structural breaks in time series have recently been developed by Wang and Zivot (2000). I apply these tests to a data set recently analyzed by Papell et al (2000). I also treat the number of structural breaks as an additional parame...

Since the publication of the influential papers by Rappoport and Reichlin (1989) and Perron (1989), which provide evidence that many macroeconomic time series might best be modeled as stationary around a broken trend, the detection of structural change in the trend function of a time series has captured the attention of econometricians and applied researchers. Much of the subsequent research ha...

Bu çal??ma, Türkiye'de 1988-2018 dönemi için, do?al i?sizlik oran? hipotezinin geçersizli?ini ve i?sizlikte histerisis geçerlili?ini incelemeyi amaçlamaktad?r. amaçla çal??mada, y?ll?k frekansta veriler kullan?lm?? olup, Geni?letilmi? Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) testleri ile çoklu yap?sal k?r?lmal? Lee-Strazicich Lagrange Çarpan? Lumsdaine-Papell birim kök test yöntemleri uygulanm...

İşsizlik oranı, ülke ekonomilerinin durumlarını analiz etmede kullanılan önemli ve kritik göstergelerden birisidir. Histeri ise işsizliğe yönelik şokların kalıcı etkileri olduğunu belirten bir kavramdır. Bunun için geçici işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi Histerisi Hipotezi ile edilmektedir. Literatürde histerisinin varlığı sıklıkla araştırılan konular arasında yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmanın literatürd...

abstracta number of economists argue that the capital expenditure has a positive impact and the current expenditure has negative impact on output while others believe that the government expenditure, regardless of being current or capital spending, has a negative impact on the economy. in this direction, this paper tries to investigate the impact of current and capital government expenditure on...

Alternative solutions such as green growth, sustainable growth and increasing the share of renewable resources in energy use are proposed to eliminate environmental pressure caused by fossil fuels. Based on this, this study, a possible convergence relationship among sources sectoral basis, if so, whether is realized through or empirically tested period 1970-2017 for Turkey where transformations...