abstract consensus in the international community has grown over the past two years that hiv/aids poses a threat to development, security, and economic growth. a few studies over the last ten years have looked at the impact on workers and their employers. with momentum building to prevent new infections and treat those already afflicted, more information is needed to assess economic impacts and...

We re-examine Sephton and Larsen's (1991) conclusion that cointegration-based tests for market efficiency suffer from temporal instability. We improve upon their research by i) including a drift term in the vector error correction model (VECM) in the Johansen procedure, ii) correcting the likelihood ratio test statistic for finitesample bias, and iii) fitting the model over longer data sets. We...

The interrelationship between international stock markets has been a key study area among the financial market researchers for international portfolio management and risk measurement. The characteristics of security returns and their dynamics play a vital role in the financial market theory. This study is an attempt to find out the dynamic linkages among the equity market of USA and emerging ma...

This paper investigates the relationship between cigarette consumption per capita net disposable income, cigarette price index, and per capita expenditure for education. In this empirical analysis the Johansen cointegration test is applied in conjunction with the vector error correction model. Finally, the forecasting technique of cigarettes consumption in Greece using cointegration models is p...

Simulations are used to check the probability of detecting a time-varying equilibrium correction by applying the existing tests of no cointegration and parameter constancy. Smooth-transition regressions are chosen to describe the nonlinearity, and the Johansen cointegration test and the Lin and Teräsvirta parameter constancy test are applied. It turns out that both tests perform well separately...

This paper considers the importance of moving average errors for the Johansen trace test of cointegrating rank based upon approximating vector autoregressions (VARs). Two cases are emphasized and explored, both taking as their starting point the Wold decomposition. Though each case defined satisfies the same cointegrating vector, one is a case of multicointegration while the other, based on res...

The present study investigates the cointegration relationships among crude oil price, domestic gold price and selected financial variables (exchange rates and stock price indices) in India. Increasing crude oil prices will increase the production costs which will affect cash flow and will decrease stock prices. Investors are showing fewer concerns in the stock markets and investing in yellow me...

This paper investigates the determinants of private investment in Senegal over the period of 1970-2000. It first tests the variables for unit root using two, relatively, new tests namely the Dickey-Fuller generalised least square de-trending test proposed by Elliot et al. (1996) and the Ng-Perron test following Ng and Perron (2001). The long run private investment equation is derived using the ...

Bangladesh, a developing economy, contains trade deficit from her very inception. This paper makes an effort to understand the time series behavior of total export and total import of Bangladesh. Unit root tests recognize the existence of random walk in total export and total import time series. Johansen cointegration test reveals long-run equilibrium relationship between these two variables. G...

By undertaking a cointegration analysis with annual data over the period 1985~2005 in China, the estimation results show that there is cointegration relationship between electrical energy consumption and economic growth taking into account industry structure changes and technical efficiency. The model shows that three explanatory variables, the GDP per capita, heavy industry share and efficienc...