A Danish Profiling System We describe the statistical model used for profiling new unemployed workers in Denmark. When a worker – during his or her first six months in unemployment – enters the employment office for the first time, this model predicts whether he or she will be unemployed for more than six months from that date or not. The case workers’ assessment of how to treat the person is p...

Is Temporary Agency Employment a Stepping Stone for Immigrants? We investigate whether agency employment is a bridge into regular employment for immigrants to Denmark using the timing-of-events approach. We provide evidence of large positive in-treatment effects, particularly for non-western immigrants and immigrants arriving during childhood. Post-treatment effects are fairly high for male non...

The paper studies the employment effects of a deposit-refund scheme on labor in a simple search-theoretic model of the labor market. It is shown that if a firm pays a deposit when it fires a worker, to be refunded when it employs the same or another worker, the vacancy rate increases and the unemployment rate declines. The scheme introduces rigidities in the labor market, however, which may be ...

Crime and the Labour Market: Evidence from a Survey of Inmates In this paper data from a survey of 1,771 inmates conducted in 31 German prisons provide microeconometric evidence on the relationship between individual anticipated labour market opportunities and the perceived probability of future recidivism. Results show that inmates with poor labour market prospects expect a significantly highe...

Çağımızda bir taraftan teknolojideki gelişmeler ve dijitalleşme, diğer yaşanan demografik değişim/dönüşüm bireylerin emek piyasasında muhatap oldukları işleri meslekleri de etkilemektedir. Emek piyasasındaki bu dönüşüm sonucunda ortaya çıkan taleplerin ne ölçüde karşılanıp karşılanmadığı, piyasasına girmeleri veya girememeleri sonucunu doğurmaktadır. Bu noktada önemli rol üstlenmesi beklenen ka...

This paper studies differences in social mobility between rich and poor families. The paper shows that borrowing constraints retard social mobility among the poor by preventing poor parents from investing optimally in the their children’s human capital. This evidence contradicts several recent studies that argue that innate ability is the overriding determinant of socioeconomic performance in t...

Are Training Programs More Effective When Unemployment Is High? We estimate short, medium, and long-run individual labor market effects of training programs for unemployed by following program participation on a monthly basis over a ten-year period. Since analyzing the effectiveness of training over such a long period is impossible with experimental data, we use an administrative database compi...

We study the outcome of an immigration amnesty for a government that faces a trade-off between minimizing the number of unwanted immigrants and expanding the tax base. Since the government is not credible when announcing a generalized amnesty, both the fiscal benefit and the stock of illegal immigrants are sub-optimal. In addition, we argue that amnesties can occur only at irregular intervals a...

In this paper we study the social norms to abstain from cheating on the state via benefit fraud and tax evasion. We interpret these norms (called benefit morale and tax morale) as moral goods, and derive testable hypotheses on whether their demand is determined by prices. Employing a large survey data set from OECD-member countries we provide robust evidence that the demand responds to price pr...

We investigate with German data how the use of temporary agency work has helped establishments to manage the economic and financial crisis in 2008/09. We examine the (regular) workforce development, use of short-time work, and business performance of establishments that made differential use of temporary agency work prior to the crisis. Overall, our results suggest that establishments with a gr...