How do migratory birds, herding dogs, and navigating sea turtles do the amazing things that they do? For hundreds of years, scientists and philosophers have struggled over possible explanations. In time, one word came to dominate the discussion: instinct. It became the catch-all explanation for those adaptive and complex abilities that do not obviously result from learning or experience. Today,...

Barriers to the use of selective digestive decontamination include concerns about emergence of resistant organisms, over-estimation of current performance in preventing ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), alternative methods of preventing VAP, and misunderstanding of mechanisms of action. A definitive cluster-randomised trial should be undertaken that incorporates practitioner concerns and e...

Do experts form rational beliefs when making split-second, sophisticated judgments? A long literature suggests not: individuals often form prior beliefs from biased sampling and update those beliefs by improperly weighting new information. This paper studies belief formation by professional umpires in Major League Baseball. We show that the decisions of umpires reflect an accurate, probabilisti...