This paper considers a dynamic adjustment process in a society with a continuum of agents. Each agent takes an action upon entry and commits to it until he is replaced by his successor at a stochastic point in time. In this society, rationality is common knowledge, but beliefs may not be coordinated with each other. A rationalizable foresight path is a feasible path of action distribution along...

Article history: Received 8 March 2013 Received in revised form 10 January 2014 Accepted 17 January 2014 Available online 7 February 2014 Companies increasingly face a dynamic environment, where unexpected change is the norm rather than the exception. Strategic foresight uses a variety of methods to assess possible future events. Combining different foresight methods and integrating expert opin...

In this paper we investigate the so called foresight bias that may appear in the Monte-Carlo pricing of Bermudan and compound options if the exercise criteria is calculated by the same Monte-Carlo simulation as the exercise values. The standard approach to remove the foresight bias is to use two independent Monte-Carlo simulations: One simulation is used to estimate the exercise criteria (as a ...

In this paper we investigate the so called foresight bias that may appear in the Monte-Carlo pricing of Bermudan and compound options if the exercise criteria is calculated by the same Monte-Carlo simulation as the exercise values. The standard approach to remove the foresight bias is to use two independent Monte-Carlo simulations: One simulation is used to estimate the exercise criteria (as a ...

Foresight is currently perceived as a critical activity in the development of innovation policies and corporate strategies. While there are many descriptions of the benefits of foresight, there is little research into how these benefits are created. In addition, although the view of innovations has shifted towards a systems understanding, the same has not happened with foresight, which is large...

Along with the rise of the now popular ‘open’ paradigm in innovation management, networks have become a common approach to practicing innovation. Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks. This article seeks to investigate how innovation networks and foresight are related, to what extent networked foresigh...

The idea of foresight as a new tool for S&T policies rests on the need to face the challenges of high tech developments, to respond to increasing global competition and to develop inter-organisational strategies. However, the impact of technological and global changes varies per country and per innovation sector, as do possibilities to develop interorganisational strategies. In this article we ...

Ever-increasing development of information technology has affected many aspects of the individual, social and organizational life. This enforces many countries to develop and adapt comprehensive plans to manage this relatively new phenomenon. Highly adoptable e-government policies and protocols are required nationally, where traditional e-government plans are failed to address the citizens' req...

Foresight Styles Assessment fills a gap in understanding the range and qualities of foresight competency. Within the human neurological capability for long range thinking, FSA proposes six styles. It suggests four areas affecting the degree to which the six styles utilize foresight when confronted with externally imposed change. Those four areas are: temporal orientation, holistic or dual-proce...

Article history: Received 1 July 2013 Received in revised form 31 January 2014 Accepted 2 February 2014 Available online 21 February 2014 The objective of this article is to explore the value of networked foresight: foresight conducted in innovation networks for the benefit of the network and its partners with active contributions from the partners. Strategic management, specifically the dynami...