three combination methods commonly used in tourism forecasting are the simple average method, the variance-covariance method and the discounted msfe method. these methods assign the different weights that can not change at each time point to each individual forecasting model. in this study, we introduce the iowga operator combination method which can overcome the defect of previous three combin...

The scientific evaluation methodology for the forecast accuracy of wind power forecasting models is an important issue in the domain of wind power forecasting. However, traditional forecast evaluation criteria, such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), have limitations in application to some degree. In this paper, a modern evaluation criterion, the Diebold-Mariano (DM) tes...

A qualitative explorative evaluation considered the effects of six visualization interfaces of sales forecasting systems on 60 university students. The study builds on earlier research from the domain of business forecasting in supply chain industries. The evaluation generates exemplar interfaces derived from the theoretical framework and task analysis of interviews with 20 expert users and des...

This work examines recent publications in forecasting in various fields, these include: wind power forecasting; electricity load forecasting; crude oil price forecasting; gold price forecasting energy price forecasting etc. In this review, categorization of the processes involve in forecasting are divided into four major steps namely: input features selection; data pre-processing; forecast mode...

The aim of this paper is to determine whether the existing leading indicators system CROLEI (CROatian Leading Economic Indicators) and its derivative, the CROLEI forecasting index, predict overall Croatian economic activity reliably. The need to evaluate the CROLEI system and the index stems from the modification of the barometric method on which the system and the index are founded on in its a...

Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated i...

Chapter Outline 8.1. Classification of SolarForecasting Methods 172 8.2. Deterministic and Stochastic Forecasting Approaches 177 8.2.1. A Critical Appraisal of Physically-Based Forecasting Approaches 177 8.2.2. Satellite Forecasts 178 8.2.3. Sky-Imager Forecasts 179 8.2.4. Data Inputs to Stochastic-Learning Approaches 179 8.2.5. Section Summary 181 8.3. Metrics for Evaluation of Solar-Forecasti...

Building a time series forecasting model by independent component analysis mechanism presents in the paper. Different from using the time series directly with the traditional ARIMA forecasting model, the underlying factors extracted from time series is the forecasting base in our model. Within component ambiguity, correlation approximation and mean difference problems, independent component ana...

Although DEA is a powerful method in evaluating DMUs, it does have some limitations. One of the limitations of this method is the result of the evaluation is based on previously data and the results are not proper for forecasting the future changes. So For this purpose, we design feedback loops for forecasting inputs and outputs through system dynamics and simulation. Then we use DEA model to f...