this paper explains a model for analyzing and measuring the propagation of order amplifications (i.e. bullwhip effect) for a single-product supply network topology considering exogenous uncertainty and linear and time-invariant inventory management policies for network entities. the stream of orders placed by each entity of the network is characterized assuming customer demand is ergodic. in fa...

Customary stochastic programs aim at the best feasible decision made before the realization of the random element is observed. The common assumption is that the probability distribution does not depend on decisions — the case of the exogenous uncertainty. This paper focuses on stochastic programming models for which through decisions, a decision-dependent, endogenous randomness is put into effe...

A large body of literature has accumulated which examines how the optimal solution of an agent maximizing the expectation of a real-valued function, depending on a random parameter p and the agent's behavior x, reacts to perturbations in the first and second moments of p. Here, by an approximation valid for small uncertainty, we allow many agents and consider their behavior in a Cournot-Nash eq...

Introduction: This study examined the impact of uncertainty during a simulated live hostage negotiation training event for police officers. Method: The nature and origin of uncertainty was assessed using observational methods of performance (at the time and by reference to video footage), decision logs and post-incident simulated recall semi-structured interviews. Results and discussion: Themat...

Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does type matter? We propose novel SVAR identification strategy address these questions via inequality constraints on structural shocks. find that sharply higher macroeconomic recessions often output shocks, while financial markets likely fluctuations. (JEL D81...

A method is proposed in this paper for estimating the uncertainty of a forecast from an econometric model. The method accounts for the four main sources of uncertainty: uncertainty due to (1) the error terms, (2) the coefficient estimates, (3) the exogenous-variable forecasts, and (4) the possible misspecification of the model. It also accounts for the fact that the variances of forecast errors...

Everyday, we are bombarded with periodic, exogenous appeals and instructions on how to behave. How do these appeals and instructions affect subsequent coordination? Using experimental methods, we investigate how a one-time exogenous instruction affects subsequent coordination among individuals in a lab. Participants play a minimum effort game repeated 5 times under fixed matching with a one-tim...