late blight, caused by phytophthora infestans, is one of the most important diseases of potato in the world and iran, especially in golestan province. 16 models have introduced for forecasting the disease in the world, sofar. in order to developing a forecasting model, wether and disease occurrence data during the recent 10 years were used.then, 22 variables were built using daily temperature, ...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and Newcastle disease incidence, and to determine the key factors that affect Newcastle disease. Having built BP neural network forecasting model by Matlab 7.0 software, we tested the performance of the model according to the coefficient of determination (R2) and absolute values of the difference between ...

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the dreaded mosquito-borne viral diseases mostly prevalent in south Asian countries including India. Early warning of the disease in terms of disease intensity is crucial for taking adequate and appropriate intervention measures. The present study was carried out in Dibrugarh district in the state of Assam located in the northeastern ...

Introduction The National Science and Technology Council, within the Executive Office of the President, established the Pandemic Prediction and Forecasting Science and Technology (PPFST) Working Group in 2013. The PPFST Working Group supports the US Predict the Next Pandemic Initiative, and serves as a forum to accelerate the development of federal infectious disease outbreak prediction and for...

OBJECTIVE To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. DESIGN AND METHODS A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpos...

Mathematical models have the potential to be useful to forecast the course of epidemics. In this chapter, a family of logistic patch models are preliminarily evaluated for use in disease modeling and forecasting. Here we also derive the logistic equation in an infectious disease transmission context based on population behavior and used it for forecasting the trajectories of the 2013-2015 Ebola...

This paper focuses on three aspects of forecasting models for asbestos-related disease/injuries relating to the Manville asbestos case: (1) The structure of forecasting models for asbestos-related personal injuries. (2) The epidemiologic evidence supporting the selected model structure and the constraints on the modeling assumptions imposed by that evidence. (3) The range of uncertainty associa...

Knowledge of host resistance, inoculum levels, and weather conditions favorable for disease development is necessary to optimize a disease forecaster. A group of plant pathologists from five land-grant universities (North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Purdue, and South Dakota) have collaborated to develop and improve performance of a disease forecasting system for Fusarium Head Blight (FHB). The ...