This paper reconsiders Coale and Trussell’s (1974) specification of model fertility schedules by age. It formally presents model fertility schedules within the framework of categorical data analysis. Specifically, births are assumed to follow an independent Poisson distribution for each age interval of each population. Identification and estimation problems are discussed. It shows that the Coal...

Data quality issues at advanced old age, such as incompleteness of registration of vital events and age misreporting, compromise estimates of the death rates and remaining life expectancy at those ages. Following up on Horiuchi and Coale (Population Studies 36: 317-326, 1982), Mitra (Population Studies 38: 313-319, 1984, Population Studies 39: 511-512, 1985), and Coale (Population Studies 39: 5...

This paper proposes a new adaptive WBT (Web Based Training) environment for collaborative learning named COALE: Collaborative and Adaptive Learning Environment. COALE is an integrated environment of collaborative learning into individual learning based WBT with Active Personalized Awareness Provider. We propose a personalized active recommendation system, which gives proper awareness at right t...

I propose and examine a new family of models for age-specific fertility schedules, in which three index ages determine the schedule's shape. The new system is based on constrained quadratic splines. It has easily interpretable parameters, is flexible enough to fit a variety of "noiseless" schedules well, and is inflexible enough to avoid implausible estimates from noisy data. Across a set of ov...

The Coale-McNeil nuptiality model is a particular case of the generalized log gamma distribution model. In this paper, we demonstrate that recognition of this connection allows an expansion of the possible applications of the Coale-McNeil model. As examples, we propose a procedure to develop country specific standard schedules, and illustrate the utility in regression analysis (directly and via...

BACKGROUND Northern regions of Iran have been encountered to dominate malignancies of gastrointestinal (GI) tract. We aimed to examine the excess mortality due to the GI tract cancer in Mazandaran province. METHODS Socio-demographic and clinical data of 484 patients with GI cancer collected during the years 1990-1991 were available from Babol Cancer Registry Center in Iran. Patients were foll...

Despite its widespread use, the Coale–Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show sys...

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of parametric extrapolations of the death rates into old age by constraining the extrapolation model on presumed life expectancy at old age. Such a task is particularly important in cases where the data quality at old age, in particular the age exaggeration, is not sufficient for reliable mortality estimates. Our tests are based on period data from the Hu...