conditional  methods  of adjustment  are often used to quantify  the effect  of the exposure on the outcome.  as  a  result,  the  stratums-specific  risk  ratio  estimates  are  reported  in  the  presence  of interaction   between   exposure  and  confounder(s)   in  the  literature,  even  if  the  target  of  the intervention on the exposure is the total population and the interaction itsel...

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when treatment and outcome are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that exploits observational conditional independencies to suggest “weak” pa...

The causal Markov condition (CMC) plays an important role in much recent work on the problem of causal inference from statistical data. It is commonly thought that the CMC is a more problematic assumption for genuinely indeterministic systems than for deterministic ones. In this essay, I critically examine this proposition. I show how the usual motivation for the CMC—that it is true of any acyc...

This paper argues that the current way in which the undergraduate introductory econometrics course is taught is neither inline with current empirical practice nor very intuitive. It proposes a shift in focus of the course on causal inference using the Roy-Rubin Causal Model (RRCM). A second theme of the paper is the suggestion to use random regressors from the start to improve the ability of st...

When dealing with a dynamic causal system people may employ a variety of different strategies. One of these strategies is causal learning, that is, learning about the causal structure and parameters of the system acted upon. In two experiments we examined whether people spontaneously induce a causal model when learning to control the state of an outcome value in a dynamic causal system. After t...

We consider the problem of learning the functions computing children from parents in a Structural Causal Model once the underlying causal graph has been identified. This is in some sense the second step after causal discovery. Taking a probabilistic approach to estimating these functions, we derive a natural myopic active learning scheme that identifies the intervention which is optimally infor...

In this paper, we apply a recently developed differential approach to inference in staged tree models to causal inference. Staged trees generalise modelling techniques established for Bayesian networks (BN). They have the advantage that they can depict highly nuanced structure impossible to express in a BN and also enable us to perform causal manipulations associated with very general types of ...

Health information technology evaluators need to distinguish between intervention efficacy as assessed in the ideal circumstances of clinical trials and intervention effectiveness as assessed in the real world circumstances of actual practice. Because current evaluation study designs do not routinely allow for this distinction, we have developed a framework for evaluation of implementation fide...