Objectives: The Tehran Stock Exchange fell in recession in December 2013, as it roughly persisted until the end of 2015. However, there are significant differences in the various industries both in terms of the beginning of recession and in terms of the end of recession. By the evaluation of the Bulls and Bears Markets in the major industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange, the recession contexts...

Manipulation of prices and convergence to rational expectations equilibrium is studied in a game without noise traders. Informed players with initially long and short positions (bulls and bears) seek to manipulate consumer expectations in opposite directions. In equilibrium, bears and uninformed consumers sell up to their short-sale limits in period 1. Bulls buy in period 1 but receive arbitrag...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock market. We call these swings long-run bull and bear episodes. We find that there is a high correlation ...

Much has been written about the efficiency of markets in general and of the market for equities in particular, and of its implications for the more-orless random-like behavior of stock prices. The conventional argument is that opportunistic trading by rational investors will arbitrage away any gains that can be made from predictable patterns; what is left are the perturbations in asset values c...

Potential manipulation of prices and convergence to rational expectations equilibrium is studied in a game without noise traders. Informed players with initially long and short positions (bulls and bears) seek to manipulate consumer expectations in opposite directions. In equilibrium, period 1 prices reveal the state, so manipulation is unsuccessful. Bears and uninformed consumers sell up to th...

We find that a small set of financial columnists has a causal effect on short-term aggregate stock market prices. For some journalists (“bulls”) the market reaction is consistently positive, whereas for others (“bears”) it is negative. Because bulls and bears are rotated exogenously in our setting, we can make causal inferences about the media’s impact on aggregate market returns. Journalist ef...