This paper examines the use of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for the analysis of long-run relations when the underlying variables are I(1). It shows that after appropriate augmentation of the order of the ARDL model, the OLS estimators of the short-run parameters are p T -consistent with the asymptotically singular covariance matrix, and the ARDL-based estimators of the long-run ...

JEL Classification: F16, F43 This study examines the impacts of CO2 emissions on economic growth of Vietnam for the period 1986-2015 by using Autogressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results reveal that there is cointegration relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth. In the long run carbon dioxide emissions have a significant negative impact on Vietnam economic growth. There...

This paper aims at improved accuracy in testing for long-run predictability in noisy series, such as stock market returns. Long-horizon regressions have previously been the dominant approach in this area. We suggest an alternative method that yields more accurate results. We find evidence of predictability in S&P 500 returns even when the confidence intervals are constructed using model-free me...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of loss function evaluated at a judgmental is zero. If test does not reject, action decision. rejects, sets equal to boundary rejection region. This statistical rule admissible and conditions on sample realization. The confidence level reflects maker’s aversion uncertainty. applied problem asset allocation. JEL Classification: C1, C11, C12, C13, D81

Following Lancaster (2002), we propose a strategy to solve the incidental parameter problem. The method is demonstrated under a simple panel Poisson count model. We also extend the strategy to accomodate cases when information orthogonality is unavailable, such as the linear AR(p) panel model. For the AR(p) model, there exists a correction function to fix the incidental parameter problem when t...

This paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in Indonesia. It assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. In so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of GDP to a monetary p...

in this paper we examine the effect of the oil volatility, consumer price index (cpi) and industrial production on the stock market return in tehran stock exchange (tse). we used seasonal data in period 1378-1390 and auto regressive distributed method (ardl) for the short-term and long-term relationship between the variables. as results of research indicate, we find that there is positive short...

in this paper, monopolistic behavior of opec, as the largest and most stable international organization between jan. 1973 to sep. 2008, is studied. for this purpose, fundamentals of game theory is used as a basis to come-up with a criterion to make a distinction between two market structures based on mutual dependency of institutions. then using such criterion, a regressive model based on expla...

This study examines the causal relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. Methodology is based on the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality relationship and the bounds testing (ARDL). Time-series data covering the period 19702005 for Malaysia, the study found, in the case of Malaysia there is no strong evidence of a bi-directional causality and long-run relationship between ...

We propose an encompassing test for non-nested linear quantile regression models and show that it has an asymptotic χ2 distribution. It is also shown that the proposed test is a regression rank score test in a comprehensive model under conditional homogeneity. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed test performs very well in finite samples. JEL classification: C12, C52