An essential part of the planning and control of any manufacturing system is the development of a model of the key processes. The Critical Path Method (CPM) is the most widely used modeling method in construction due to its simplicity. Discrete-event simulation is more versatile than CPM and is well suited to modeling manufacturing processes since these tend to be repetitive, but it lacks the s...

Fiscal foresight—the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents know the tax rates they face in the future—is intrinsic to the tax policy process. Although acknowledged in empirical work, theoretical analysis of its implications is scant. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. A simple example sh...

Monitoring one's knowledge during study is susceptible to a foresight bias (Koriat and Bjork, 2005). Judgments of learning (JOLs) are inflated whenever information that is present at study and absent, but solicited, at test, such as the targets in cue-target paired associates, highlights aspects of cues that are less apparent when those cues are presented alone. The present findings demonstrate...

With rapid changes in technology and intense competition in the business environment the importance of cultivating and sustaining foresight in multiple-product innovation firms has been propelled to unprecedented heights. Yet, research on the processes through which such firms mobilise foresight in their working environment remains scarce. This paper seeks to explore the different processes thr...

Article history: Received 21 June 2013 Received in revised form 25 August 2014 Accepted 28 August 2014 Available online 18 September 2014 This paper explores the relationship between corporate foresight and the capability of the organization to respond successfully to external changes (i.e., strategic agility).More generally, we investigate the value that firms, facing growing uncertainty becau...

We make a further attempt to investigate equilibrium stability of a nonlinear Cournot duopoly game with adaptive adjustment toward best reply by assuming heterogeneous firms where one firm only uses naive expectations whereas the other employs a simple forecast technology to form sophisticated expectations. More precisely, based on the knowledge of actual production of the competitor and its ac...

We study a variant of the repeated prisoner’s dilemma with uncertain horizon, in which each player chooses his foresight ability; that is, the timing in which he is informed about the realized length of the interaction. In addition, each player has an independent probability to observe the opponent’s foresight ability. We show that if this probability is not too close to 0 or 1, then the game a...

Article history: Received 16 April 2007 Received in revised form 3 April 2008 Accepted 5 April 2008 Expectations held by different actor groups are of key importance for the shaping of sociotechnical transformation processes. Foresight activities may be interpreted as a means to elicit, aggregate, modulate and contextualize expectations held by different actors. The paper proposes a conceptual ...

INTRODUCTION Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. METHOD This review study was completed in 2015. The databases...

Learning facts without first considering what they could be can lead to hindsight bias. How might this impact (a) memory and (b) understanding of novel topics? Foresight participants read about five psychology studies, including mean performance of one group; then they estimated the mean performance of another group and stated causes for the difference; finally, they received the second group’s...