making capital and investment is the main driving forces of economic development. based on the investment sensitivity to the changes of some of macro-economic variables and risk and uncertainty, the present study evaluated the effective factors on investment in private sector in iran during 1980-2007. at first, the uncertainty variables of real informal exchange rate, nominal interest rate and ...

We show that macroeconomic uncertainty can be considered as exogenous when assessing its e¤ects on the U.S. economy. Instead, …nancial uncertainty can at least in part arise as an endogenous response to some macroeconomic developments, and overlooking this channel leads to distortions in the estimated e¤ects of …nancial uncertainty shocks on the economy. We obtain these empirical …ndings with a...

Scholars have theorized that firms can intervene in the creation of formal technology standards to reduce uncertainty and influence the outcome to their advantage. One approach is through early acquisition: Firms can acquire targets with relevant technology prior to standardization. Using real options logic, the authors show how early acquisitions can be considered a growth option under certain...

We propose the use of an angel-daemon framework to perform an uncertainty analysis of short-term macroeconomic models with exogenous components. An uncertainty profile U is a short and macroscopic description of a potentially perturbed situation. The angeldaemon framework uses U to define a strategic game where two agents, the angel and the daemon, act selfishly having different goals. The Nash...

Planning with Incomplete Information for Robot Problems Stanford, CA, March 1996, pp. 71-73 Planning for Murphy's Law: Uncertainty in CIRCA David J. Musliner & Kurt D. Krebsbach Automated Reasoning Group Honeywell Technology Center 3660 Technology Drive Minneapolis, MN 55418 fmusliner,[email protected] Abstract Anything bad that can happen will happen. Plan accordingly. Introduction M...

In spite of widespread criticisms, macroeconometric models are still most popular for forecasting and policy analysis. When the most recent data available on both the exogenous and the endogenous variable are preliminary estimates subject to a revision process the estimators of the coeecients are aaected by the presence of the preliminary data, the projections for the exogenous variables are aa...

Planning with Incomplete Information for Robot Problems Stanford, CA, March 1996, pp. 71-73 Planning for Murphy's Law: Uncertainty in CIRCA David J. Musliner & Kurt D. Krebsbach Automated Reasoning Group Honeywell Technology Center 3660 Technology Drive Minneapolis, MN 55418 fmusliner,[email protected] Abstract Anything bad that can happen will happen. Plan accordingly. Introduction M...

This paper introduces the concept of the Testing Value into the analysis of environmental decisions under uncertainty and irreversibility. It is defined as the value of endogenous above exogenous information. We start from a situation where information concerning future economic benefits and costs of resource preservation is exogenous. We show that if information can also depend on the level of...

In this work, we address the modeling and solution of mixed-integer linear multistage stochastic programming problems involving both endogenous and exogenous uncertain parameters. We first propose a composite scenario tree that captures both types of uncertainty, and we exploit its unique structure to derive new theoretical properties that can drastically reduce the number of non-anticipativity...