Multivariate count models are rare in political science, despite the presence of many count time series. This article develops a new Bayesian Poisson vector autoregression (BaP-VAR) model that can characterize endogenous dynamic counts with no restrictions on the contemporaneous correlations. Impulse responses, decomposition of the forecast errors, and dynamic multiplier methods for the effects...

The purpose of this paper is to examine two factors, gold production and export prices, that have been suggested as having aided Australia's escape from the deflation it faced in the early 1890s. In order to examine the factors influencing Australian domestic prices in the second half of the nineteenth century, annual data over the period 1861-1900 are used to estimate a structural vector autor...

A new robust version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on value-at-risk (VaR) measure referred to as VaR-SVM is proposed in three closely related formulations, and relationships between those VaRSVM formulations is established. In contrast to classical SVMs (hard-margin SVM, soft-margin SVM, and ν-SVM), VaR-SVM is stable to data outliers. Computational experiments confirm that compared to ν...

This paper documents the evolution of variables central to understanding the creation of an Atlantic Economy in wheat between the US and the UK in the nineteenth century. The cointegrated VAR model is then applied to the period 1838-1913 in order to find long-run relationships between these variables. The main result is that explanations for the expansion of trade based on falling barriers to t...