Widespread flooding occurred across northwest Europe during the winter of 2013/14, resulting in large socioeconomic damages. In the historical record, extreme hydrological events have been connected with intense water vapour transport. Here we show that water vapour transport has higher medium-range predictability compared with precipitation in the winter 2013/14 forecasts from the European Cen...

Toward Understanding Predictability of Climate: A Linear Stochastic Modeling Approach. (August 2003) Faming Wang, B.S., Shandong University; M.S., First Institute of Oceanography Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Ping Chang This dissertation discusses the predictability of the atmosphere-ocean climate system on interannual and decadal timescales. We investigate the extent to which the atmospheri...

Regime predictability in atmospheric low-order models augmented with stochastic forcing is studied. Atmospheric regimes are identified as persistent or metastable states using a hidden Markov model analysis. A somewhat counterintuitive, coherence resonance-like effect is observed: regime predictability increases with increasing noise level up to an intermediate optimal value, before decreasing ...

We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as state variables. We find the short rate to be the only robust short-run predictor of excess returns,...

This paper studies the problem of predicting occurrences of a significant event in a partially-observed discrete-event system. The predictability of occurrences of an event in a system is defined in the context of formal languages. The predictability of a language is a stronger condition than the diagnosability of the language. Two necessary and sufficient conditions for predictability of occur...

Previous research has shown that neural responses to words during sentence comprehension are sensitive to both lexical repetition and a word's predictability in context. While previous research has often contrasted the effects of these variables (e.g. by looking at cases in which word repetition violates sentence-level constraints), little is known about how they work in tandem. In the current ...

australian rainfall is related with numerous key climate predictors namely el-nino southern oscillation (enso), indian ocean dipole (iod) and southern annular mode (sam). some studies have tried to discover the effects of these climate predictors on rainfall variability of different parts of australia, particularly western australia, queensland and victoria. nonetheless, clear association betwe...

Recently, it has been shown that feature discrimination in temporally regular rhythms results in enhanced performance compared with feature discrimination in temporally irregular rhythms. In this study, we investigated the influence of temporal predictability on attentional processing. We show that temporal predictability of a sequence results in a decreased peak latency of the P3b compared wit...

Two recent studies, by Molet et al. (2016) and Davis et al. (in press) with rats and humans, support the hypothesis that the predictability of maternal signals influences cognitive and emotional development. Both studies use a measure of entropy rate to characterize predictability of maternal sensory signals. This document describes the common cross-species approach in which maternal sensory si...

In this note we propose a simple method of measuring directional predictability and testing for the hypothesis that a given time series has no directional predictability. The test is based on the correlogram of quantile hits. We provide the distribution theory needed to conduct inference, propose some model free upper bound critical values, and apply our methods to stock index return data. The ...