In conventional phylogeographic studies, historical demographic processes are elucidated from the geographical distribution of individuals represented on an inferred gene tree. However, the interpretation of gene trees in this context can be difficult as the same demographic/geographical process can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under d...

Good, I. J. 1961. A causal calculus, parts I and II. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 11: 305–18 and 12: 43–51. Lewontin, R. 1974. Analysis of variance and analysis of causes. American Journal of Human Genetics 26: 400–11. Matthen, M. and A. Ariew. 2002. Two ways of thinking about fitness and natural selection. Journal of Philosophy 99: 55–83. Miller, R. 1987. Fact and Method. Prin...

The analysis of natural-language text involves many different kinds of processes that might be described in multiple ways. One way to describe these processes is in terms of the semantics of their requirements and results. Such a description makes it possible to view these processes as analogous to inference rules in a theorem-proving system. This analogy is useful for metacognition because the...

shown in the seventh column of the table is little affected by differences in the limiting brightness. This divergence indicates that, as compared with both Kapteyn and Mount Wilson, their results are not homogeneous; and noting, further, that the numerous and careful guages of the Herschels which extend to the 14th magnitude give a galactic condensation agreeing closely with Kapteyn (Herschel ...

This note observes that the ecological inference problem is very closely related to the problem of estimating causal effects. Due to the common mathematical structure, instrumental variables techniques solve the ecological inference problem under essentially the same set of conditions under which they allow researchers to draw conclusions about causality. More generally, carefully addressing th...

When engaging in counterfactual thought, people must imagine changes to the actual state of the world. In this study, we investigated how people reason about counterfactual scenarios by asking participants to make counterfactual inferences about a series of causal devices (i.e., answer questions such as If component X had not operated [had failed], would components Y, Z, and W have operated?) a...

Large sample methods for estimating the variance of parameter estimates for hypothesistesting purposes (White, 1982) and statistical tests for model selection (Vuong, 1989) when the statistical model is wrong (i.e., misspeci ed) are reviewed. A parallel distributed processing (PDP) statistical model for analyzing categorical time series data is then proposed, and a theorem establishing when the...

People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents’ intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ...

People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ...