Outline This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach that does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, which makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for non-normal peakedness and asymmetry, we convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in va...

Investors and policymakers have long hoped that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) would provide an accurate measure of long-term market inflation expectations. To make informed decisions and to ensure that inflation does not erode the purchasing power of their assets, investors need to assess the rate of inflation expected by other market participants. Having an accurate measure of...

The present article offers a careful description of empirical identification of possible multiple changes in regime. We apply recently developed tools designed to select among regime-switching models among a broad class of linear and nonlinear regression models and provide a discussion of the impact on the formation of inflation expectations in the presence of multiple and recurrent changes in ...

This paper compares the observed reverberation response lags and the intensity ratios of the broad line region (BLR) emission lines HeII 1640, HeII 4686 and CIV 1549 with predictions. Published observations indicate that the HeII 1640 lag is three times shorter than the lags of HeII 4686 or CIV 1549. Diverse models however do not reproduce this observation. Extensive improved numerical simulati...

There are long, (and often variable), lags between a change in interest rates and its effect on real output and inflation. Hence policy should be based on forecasts, (King 2000). So the eventual out-turn, e.g. for output and inflation, is a complex combination of the skills of the forecaster, the response of the policy-makers to the forecasts (and to their other, possibly private, sources of in...

www.philadelphiafed.org to the financial instruments that help guard savings from being eroded by inflation.1 Also, households and firms often write contracts that are stated in dollar amounts (nominal terms). A worker may, for example, sign a contract to work over the upcoming year for a fixed dollar amount. If inflation turns out to be higher than what was expected at the time the contract wa...

We examine semiparametric nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous variables (NLARX) via three classes of artificial neural networks: the first one uses smooth sigmoid activation functions; the second one uses radial basis activation functions; and the third one uses ridgelet activation functions. We provide root mean squared error convergence rates for these ANN estimators of the conditi...

Abstract This paper characterizes the relationship between monetary aggregates, inflation and economic activity in Switzerland since mid-1970s. Traditional forms of money demand quantity theory relationships have remained stable over whole period. Broad excesses trend values, accounting for a secular decline interest rates thus velocity, been followed by persistently higher output with usual po...