We apply a simple dynamical rule to determine the dominant forcing direction in locally coupled oceanatmosphere anomalies in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/ NCAR) reanalysis data. The rule takes into account the phase relationship between the low-level vorticity anomalies and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Analysis ...

The potential for climate predictability at seasonal time scales resides in information provided by the ocean initial conditions, in particular the upper thermal structure. Currently, several operational centres issue routine seasonal forecasts produced with coupled ocean-atmosphere models, requiring real-time knowledge of the state of the global ocean. Seasonal forecasting needs the calibratio...

Despite the equatorial symmetry of the annual-mean insolation, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the collocated band of high sea surface temperature (SST) assume perennial northern latitudes over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic. An atmospheric general circulation model is coupled with an intermediate ocean model to study continental forcing and oceanic–atmospheric interaction that ...

52 years of data (1949-2000) from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis are used to investigate mechanisms involved in forcing and damping of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in the South Atlantic Ocean. Organized patterns of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability are identified using EOF and SVD analyses. The leading mode of coupled variability consists of an SST pattern with a strong northeast-sout...

Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r(2) ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical...

The impact of long-term sea surface temperature (SST) change on the atmospheric circulation is studied by comparing atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with a spatially uniform SST increase and a structured SST increase. The structured SST increase is calculated from the response of an ensemble of coupled ocean-atmosphere models to increased CO2. Most of the impact o...

[1] Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence s...

Errors of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) limit their utility for climate prediction and projection. Origins of and feedback for tropical biases are investigated in the historical climate simulations of eighteen CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Based on an in...

The key scientific uncertainty in the global warming debate is the equilibrium climate sensitivity. Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models predict a wide range of equilibrium climate sensitivities, with a consequently large spread of societal implications. Comparison of models with instrumental data has not been able to reduce the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. An alternative ...

A recent paper compared approximate radiative transfer results for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance, using various algorithms published in the literature. We show that one of the algorithms was used incorrectly, resulting in its poor performance as stated in that paper. Correct usage produces results with errors typically less than 3%, which compares favorably to the other tested algorithms.