How do we perceive the predictability of functions? We derive a rational measure of a function’s predictability based on Gaussian process learning curves. Using this measure, we show that the smoothness of a function can be more important to predictability judgments than the variance of additive noise or the number of samples. These patterns can be captured well by the learning curve for Gaussi...

Real-time systems need to be time-predictable in order to prove the timeliness of all their time-critical responses. While this is a well-known fact, recent efforts of the community on concretizing the predictability of task timing have shown that there is no common agreement about what the term timepredictability exactly means. In this paper we propose a universal definition of time-predictabi...

In this paper we study the problem of predictability in partially observable discrete event systems, i.e., the question whether an observer can predict the occurrence of a fault. We extend the definition of predictability to consider the time interval where the fault will occur: the (i, j)-predictability does not only specify that the fault will be predicted before it occurs, but also that the ...

Investors’ search for successful forecasting models leads the data generating process for financial returns to change over time which means that individual return forecasting models can at best hope to uncover evidence of ‘local’ predictability. We illustrate this point on a suite of forecasting models used to predict US stock returns and propose an adaptive forecast combination approach. Most ...

The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, in an intermediate coupled equatorial Pacific model run under the 1961–1975 and the 1981–1995 climatologies, the latter climatology led to longer-period oscillations, t...

Predictability and controllability of events influence attributions and affect in many research domains. In face-to-face social interaction, behavior is predictable from actor's own past behavior (internal determinants) and from partner's past behavior (social determinants). This study assessed how affect ratings are related to predictability of vocal activity from internal and social determina...

In this paper the effect of different aircraft automated descent guidance strategies on fuel burn and the temporal predictability of the executed trajectory is investigated. The paper aims to provide an understanding of how airborne automation can be permitted by Air Traffic Control to remain in control of the descent in the presence of disturbances while providing sufficient predictability. Si...

An understanding of the limit on potential predictability is crucial for developing appropriate tools for extended-range prediction of active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The global low-frequency changes in climate modulate the annual cycle of the ISM and can influence the intrinsic predictability limit of the ISM intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Using 104-year (1901–2004)...

Somatosensory-evoked potentials (SEPs) are used in humans and animals to increase knowledge about nociception and pain. Since the SEP in humans increases when noxious stimuli are administered unpredictably, predictability potentially influences the SEP in animals as well. To assess the effect of predictability on the SEP in animals, classical fear conditioning was applied to compare SEPs betwee...

In reading, it is often assumed that words are recognized sufficiently quickly, accurately, and unambiguously that downstream processes may proceed with perfect information about word identity. For example, word predictability is believed to affect early reading time measures, yet a word’s predictability cannot be calculated without knowledge of the word’s identity. We argue that such informati...