We report four experiments investigating conjunctive inferences (from a conjunction and two conditional premises) and disjunctive inferences (from a disjunction and the same two conditionals). The mental model theory predicts that the conjunctive inferences, which require one model, should be easier than the disjunctive inferences, which require multiple models. Formal rule theories predict eit...

Extended Abstract. Inferences for spatial data are affected substantially by the spatial configuration of the network of sites where measurements are taken. Consider the following standard data-model framework for spatial data. Suppose a continuous, spatially-varying quantity, Z, is to be observed at a predetermined number, n, of points ....[ To Countinue Click here]

Research shows that younger adults have difficulty forgetting inferences that they make after reading a passage, even if the information that the inferences are based on is later shown to be untrue. The present study examined the effects of these inferences on memory in the lab and tested whether older adults, like younger adults, are influenced by the lingering effects of false inferences. In ...

I I n t r o d u c t i o n In cooperative man-machine interaction, it is taken as necessary that a system truthfully and informatively respond to a user's question. It is not, however, sufficient. In particular, if the system has reason to believe that its planned response nfight lead the user to draw an inference that it knows to be false, then it must block it by nmdifying or adding to its res...

After hearing that ‘the flimsy shelf weakened under the weight of the books,’ people often remember having heard that the shelf broke–an inference that is not logically necessitated by the statement. Indeed, when asked to choose which word was heard—weakened or broke—people often mistakenly choose broke, a pragmatic inference, as having been heard (McDermott & Chan, 2006). On what basis are the...

Likelihood ratios are extensively used to evaluate the performances of diagnostic tests and to update prior odds of disease to posttest odds. Since few tests are truly 100% accurate, including many used as “gold standards,” it is important to be able to estimate likelihood ratios in cases where no such standard is available. In this paper, methods to calculate point and interval estimates for l...

*This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grants IST-81-20685 and IST-85-12419 and by the Naval Ocean Systems Center under contracts N00123-81-C-1078 and N6600183-C-0255. ‘Experimental evidence indicates that either interpretation is equally likely when this text is presented to human subjects (Granger & Holbrook, 1983). happy, how does the understander resol...

We explore the possibility of a logic where a conclusion substantially improves over its premise(s): Specifically, we intend to rule out inference steps such that the premise conveys more information, in a simpler form, than the conclusion does. In fact, most reasoning formalisms, among them classical logic, come with means for generating disjunctive or conditional information in a fairly arbit...

vs. argumentative contexts If our approach is right, reasoning should be more easily triggered in argumentative situations. We should therefore expect better performances on reasoning tasks where the participants are placed in such situations. Standard theories make no such prediction. If anything, argumentative contexts should increase the cognitive load since they involve taking into account ...