We consider a supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a procure-to-stock retailer facing a newsvendor problem with a forecast update. Under a wholesale price contract, the retailer waits as long as she can and optimally places her order after observing the forecast update. We show that the retailer’s wait-and-decide strategy, induced by the wholesale price contract, hinders the manufactur...

Received Jul 22, 2012 Revised Oct 23, 2012 Accepted Nov 14, 2012 Time series forecasting is an active research area that has drawn considerable attention for applications in a variety of areas. Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are one of the most important time series models used in financial market forecasting over the past three decades but not very often used to forec...

Gold is often used by investors as a hedge against inflation or adverse economic times. Consequently, it important for to have accurate forecasts of gold prices. This paper uses several machine learning tree-based classifiers (bagging, stochastic gradient boosting, random forests) predict the price direction and silver exchange traded funds. Decision tree bagging, forests predictions are much m...

The development of small developing states has long been influenced by foreign aid. Apart from the macro benefits of bridging the savings and investment gap and building the foreign exchange gap, it is also said to stabilise output price, provide price certainty and affect output price positively. In this paper I examine these three aspects in detail with respect to the price subsidy that Fiji’...

______________________________________________________________________________ Abstract Motivation. Quantifying the impact of the introduction of physician fee schedules in workers compensation is an integral part of NCCI legislative pricing. Although the vast majority of U.S. states have physician fee schedules in place, a small number of jurisdictions operate without such a legal provision. S...

Let Xt be any d-dimensional continuous process that takes values in an open connected domain O in R. In this paper, we give equivalent formulations of the conditional full support CFS property ofXt inO. We use them to show that the CFS property of X inO implies the existence of a martingaleM under an equivalent probability measure such thatM lies in the > 0 neighborhood of Xt for any given unde...

We study the effect of downstream competition on incentives for demand forecast investments in supply chains. We show that with common pricing schemes, such as wholesale price or two-part tariffs, downstream firms under Cournot competition overinvest in demand forecasting. Analyzing the determinants of overinvestment, we demonstrate that under wholesale price contracts and two-part tariffs, tot...

This paper attempts to reconcile an apparent contradiction between short-run and long-run movements in the price of gold. A theoretical model is developed that suggests a set of the conditions that would have to be satisfied for the price of gold to rise over time at the general rate of inflation and hence be an effective long-run hedge against inflation. The model also demonstrates that short-...