In oligopolistic industries firms face at least two types of uncertainty. First, there is uncertainty about the evolution of demand and possibly also production technology. This type of uncertainty is typically exogenous to the industry. Second, there is uncertainty that emerges endogenously from the strategic decisions of firms. This strategic uncertainty often arises because a firm does not k...

This study explores the influence of trade policy uncertainty on medical innovation investment in developing nations from 1980 to 2020, with a focus period COVID-19. We used exogenous and heterogeneous exposure trade-policy-uncertainty resolutions countries’ adjustments, which reduced tariff hikes imported goods double difference-in-differences method. ARDL PVAR has been studied for long-run sh...

The Russian economy has encountered substantial exchange rate volatility due to many endogenous and exogenous shocks, including the adoption of different systems, global financial crisis, sanctions, COVID pandemic. long experience with a managed floating system, which motivates us investigate response domestic economic policy uncertainty, incorporating oil prices trade volume under circumstance...

We study a non-cooperative game with aggregative structure, namely when the payoffs depend on the strategies of the opponent players through an aggregator function. We assume that a subset of players behave as leaders in a Stackelberg model. The leaders, as well the followers, act non-cooperatively between themselves and solve a Nash equilibrium problem. We assume an exogenous uncertainty affec...

We present a Bayesian forecasting methodology of discrete-time finite statespace hidden Markov models with non-constant transition matrix that depends on a set of exogenous covariates. We describe an MCMC reversible jump algorithm for predictive inference, allowing for model uncertainty regarding the set of covariates that affect the transition matrix. We apply our models to interest rates and ...

This paper develops a game-theoretic model of heterogeneous consumers to analyze the effect of cooperative involvement on quality-enhancing product innovation activity, the pricing of food products, and the welfare of the groups involved in the context of a mixed duopoly where an openmembership consumer co-op competes with an IOF. Analytical results show that the involvement of the member welfa...

Regressor selection can be viewed as the rst step in the system identi cation process. The bene ts of nding good regressors before estimating complex models are especially clear for nonlinear systems, where the class of possible models is huge. In this article, a structured way of using the tool Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is presented and used for NARX model (nonlinear autoregressive model wi...

This chapter compares the predictive accuracy of the Michigan and Fair models using the method developed in Fair (1980). These models are compared to each other and to an eighth-order autoregressive model. The method accounts for the four main sources of uncertainty of a forecast: uncertainty due to (I) the error terms, (2) the coefficient estimates, (3) the exogenous variables, and (4) the pos...