We develop a global vector autoregressive model GVAR to analyze macroeconomic shock transmission among the East African Community countries. The results suggest that there is a signi…cant growth and in‡ation shock transmissions from Kenya to the rest of the member countries while the transmission in the opposite direction is insigni…cant. The macroeconomic shocks are re‡ected more on prices tha...

This paper is an attempt to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on output in Indonesia using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology for the period 1983:1 – 2010:1. We use contemporaneous restriction and follow Blanchard and Perotti (1999) technique to identify structural fiscal policy shocks in Indonesia. The estimation results show that the government spending shocks are found...

This paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in Indonesia. It assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. In so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of GDP to a monetary p...

This paper develops an empirical macroeconomic framework to analyze the relationship between major political disruptions and business cycles of a country. We combine a new dataset of political revolutions (mass domestic political campaigns to remove dictators and juntas) across the world since 1960, with coup data and traditional macro data (of output, investment, trade, inflation and exchange ...

Recessions are associated with increases in uncertainty. This paper shows that a simple model of creative destruction, in which new productive businesses push out old obsolete ones, produces increases in measured uncertainty during recessionary periods even without time-variation in second moments of exogenous shocks. Moreover, the suggested channel is also borne out by the data. Using an estab...

1 Chris Laing, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] 2 Alan Robinson, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] Abstract  Previously it has been proposed that explanations of non-traditional withdrawal might be defined by the underlying characteristics of the teaching and learn...

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is t...

This paper employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the monetary policy framework of a small emerging open economy Malaysia, especially how the economy dynamically respond to money, interest rate, exchange rate and foreign shocks. We establish identification conditions to uncover the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on various domestic variables. Following...

Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output series in eight industrial sectors comprising UK Manufacturing. Through the application of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the VAR model is used to measure trend output in the Manufacturing Sector. This measure is compared with alternative trend measures o...

This work explores the relationship between the sentiment of lyrics in Billboard Top 100 songs, stocks, and a consumer confidence index. We hypothesized that sentiment of Top 100 songs could be representative of public mood and correlate to stock market changes as well. We analyzed the sentiment for polarity and mood in terms of seven dimensions. We gathered data from 2008 to 2013 and found sta...