We examine the evidence on excess stock return predictability in a Bayesian setting in which the investor faces uncertainty about both the existence and strength of predictability. When we apply our methods to the dividend-price ratio, we find that even investors who are quite skeptical about the existence of predictability sharply modify their views in favor of predictability when confronted b...

Long-horizon regressions of future stock returns on past volatility yield R values of more than 72% at 10-year horizons. For the same horizons, the predictability of volatility itself is close to zero. This puzzling combination of a higher predictability of returns with a lower predictability of volatility cannot be easily explained within existing econometric frameworks. As a solution, we sugg...

We examine the evidence on excess stock return predictability in a Bayesian setting in which the investor faces uncertainty about both the existence and strength of predictability. When we apply our methods to the dividend-price ratio, we find that even investors who are quite skeptical about the existence of predictability sharply modify their views in favor of predictability when confronted b...

This article presents the Provo Corpus, a corpus of eye-tracking data with accompanying predictability norms. The predictability norms for the Provo Corpus differ from those of other corpora. In addition to traditional cloze scores that estimate the predictability of the full orthographic form of each word, the Provo Corpus also includes measures of the predictability of the morpho-syntactic an...

Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. There is a large separation of time scales between the slower oceanic processes, whose predictability is of interest here, and the much more rapid atmospher...

The repetition and the predictability of a word in a conversation are two factors that are believed to affect whether it is emphasized: predictable, repeated words are less acoustically prominent than unpredictable, new words. However, because predictability and repetition are correlated, it is unclear whether speakers lengthen unpredictable words to facilitate comprehension or whether this len...

This study investigates the relationship between word repetition, predictability from neighbouring words, and articulatory reduction in Dutch. For the seven most frequent words ending in the adjectival suffix -lijk, 40 occurrences were randomly selected from a large database of face-to-face conversations. Analysis of the selected tokens showed that the degree of articulatory reduction (as measu...

During text reading, the duration of eye fixations was found to decrease with greater frequency and predictability of the currently fixated word (Rayner, 1998). However, it has not been tested whether those results apply to scene viewing studies. We computed object frequency and predictability from both linguistic and visual scene analysis (LabelMe , Russell et al., 2008). Latent Semantic Analy...

Climate prediction experiences various input uncertainties such as initial condition errors (predictability of the first kind), boundary condition (or model parameter) errors (predictability of the second kind), and combined errors (predictability of the third kind). Quantification of model predictability due to input uncertainties is a key issue leading to successful climate prediction. The fi...

Previous electrophysiological work argues that predictability and semantic incongruity rapidly impact comprehension, as indicated by modulation of the N400 component between ~300-500ms. An ongoing question is whether effects of predictability in fact reflect pre-activation in long-term memory as opposed to modulating the kind of integration processes triggered by incongruity. We used a function...