Outright bank failures without prior indication of nancial instability are very rare. Supervisory authorities monitor banks constantly. Thus, they usually obtain early warning signals that precede ultimate failure and, in fact, banks can be regarded as troubled to varying degrees before outright closure. But to our knowledge virtually all studies that predict bank failures neglect the ordinal n...

The recent global financial tsunami (2007 – present) has swiped the whole world with disastrous consequences, leading to the bankruptcy of major banks, trillions of dollars in economic rescues, and major national economic failures. Unlike previous financial crisis, one major driver of this crisis is the contagious failures of banks through a network of interbank payments and correlated bank por...

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that h...

We examine the power of various capital ratios — scaled by total assets, riskweighted assets and gross revenues — to forecast U.S. bank failures. Capital ratios are the centerpiece of the 1988 Basel Accord, and various ratios are currently under consideration in Basel in connection with one of the three “pillars” of a more comprehensive approach to capital adequacy. Using data for the period 19...

Over the past two decades the United States has experienced substantial increases in the number of bank failures, however, surprisingly few banks have failed during the 2001 recession. This paper explores the relationship between economic cycles and bank health. We find that economic forecasts provide little additional information over bank-specific financial data during prosperous times, possi...

Throughout the 1930s bank failures were highly clustered in time and space. This suggests that financial linkages between banks and/or systematic shocks that affected many banks simultaneously played important roles in depression era banking panics. This paper uses a Bayesian hazard rate model of bank suspensions with spatial and network effects to explore modes of contagion during the banking ...

This paper examines the determinants of individual bank failures and acquisitions in the United States during 1984-1993. We use bank-specific information suggested by examiner CAMELrating categories to estimate competing-risks hazard models with time-varying covariates. We focus especially on the role of management quality, as reflected in alternative measures of xefficiency and find the ineffi...

This study utilizes logistic regression to identify annual financial statement and performance ratio factors that influenced the failure rate of U.S. small banks before after Financial Crisis identified during December 2007 through June, 2009. The includes rates bank spanning years 2001 2014. aim paper is describe in large increase Crisis. created drastic sustained changes system were designed ...