Price forecast is a task challenging and very important in competitive electricity market context. Both market players and regulators concern very much about the price evolution, on one hand, the prediction of the market price is a crucial information for the production arrangement and bidding strategies. On the other hand, the regulators need to analyze the market behavior and monitor the mark...

Decision support systems for weather forecasting have yet to tackle the key issues in formulating forecast policy, focussing instead on data presentation. Here we describe a method for eliciting forecasting information and outline a forecast ontology for codifying that information as a data management tool. The completed ontology will provide key ingredients for designing future decision suppor...

Abstract: With the development of Chinese economy, the building industry has been becoming one of pillar industries. The enormous investment of engineering construction, together with its labor-intensive character, has made building safety a serious problem. Heavy casualties and serious property loss take place every year. In order to reduce the building accident and improve the management leve...

In this work is discussed the importance of the renewable production forecast in an island environment. A probabilistic forecast based on kernel density estimators is proposed. The aggregation of these forecasts, allows the determination of thermal generation amount needed to schedule and operating a power grid of an island with high penetration of renewable generation. A case study based on el...

We study a two-stage purchase contract with a demand forecast update. The purchase contract provides the buyer an opportunity to adjust an initial commitment based on an updated demand forecast obtained at a later stage. An adjustment, if any, incurs a fixed as well as a variable cost. Using a dynamic programming formulation, we obtain optimal solutions for a class of demand distributions. We a...

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Burgstahler and Eames (2003) present evidence that analysts commonly anticipate earnings management to avoid small losses, but often incorrectly predict its occurrence. Here we consider whether the market’s behavior mimics that of analysts. Our results suggest that analysts exhibit more forecast optimism in their zero earnings forecasts than in their other small earnings forecast levels, and ma...