ABSTRACT We investigate the relationship between insider horizon and disclosure policy. First, we develop analyze a rational expectations model assuming insiders are able to commit Insiders with short prefer more willing bear costs of reduce information asymmetries among capital market participants. then empirically test our predictions in setting newly public firms where CEO is approaching ret...

Abstract We exploit detailed transaction and position data for a sample of long-short equity hedge funds to study the trading activity fundamental investors. find that exhibit skill in opening positions, but they close their positions too early, thereby forgoing about one-third trades’ potential profitability. explain this behavior with limits arbitrage: early order reallocate capital more prof...

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock’s return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in realtime, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow ...

This paper documents that political factors can be linked to the part of stock prices that cannot be explained by the standard present value models. The non-fundamental component of stock market index appears to be significantly influenced by the political orientation of the president and his approval rating, election cycle and military conflicts. The findings presented here indicate that there...

We are the first paper to analyse and confirm the existence and extent of rational informational herding and rational informational contrarianism in a financial market experiment, and to compare and contrast these with the equivalent irrational phenomena. In our study, subjects generally behaved according to benchmark rationality. Moreover, traders who should herd or be contrarian in theory are...

We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence i...