This paper considers the problem of constructing confidence sets for the date of a single break in a linear time series regression. We establish analytically and by small sample simulation that the current standard method in econometrics for constructing such confidence intervals has a coverage rate far below nominal levels when breaks are of moderate magnitude. Given that breaks of moderate ma...

Market Stress and Herding* We propose a new approach to detecting and measuring herding which is based on the cross-sectional dispersion of the factor sensitivity of assets within a given market. This method enables us to evaluate if there is herding towards particular sectors or styles in the market including the market index itself and critically we can also separate such herding from common ...

providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. time series analysis was used for studying the impacts of monetary policies effect on food price in...

abstract t he relationship between public sector deficits and inflation is one of the important and controversial issues in the academic literature as well as in economic policy field. on the other hand, a major objective of macroeconomic policies is to foster economic growth and to keep inflation on a low level. so keeping the price stability plays an important role in determining the growth r...

A new Bayesian test statistic is proposed to test a point null hypothesis based on a quadratic loss. The proposed test statistic may be regarded as the Bayesian version of Lagrange multiplier test. Its asymptotic distribution is obtained based on a set of regular conditions and follows a chi-squared distribution when the null hypothesis is correct. The new statistic has several important advant...

It is well known that confidence intervals for weakly identified parameters are unbounded with positive probability (e.g. Dufour, Econometrica 65, pp. 1365-1387 and Staiger and Stock, Econometrica 65, pp. 557-586), and that the asymptotic risk of their estimators is unbounded (Pötscher, Econometrica 70, pp.1035-1065). In this note we extend these “impossibility results” and show that uniformly ...

This paper uses newly available long-span data on real per capita incomes from 1900-2001 to test for stochastic convergence in a diverse group of 29 countries. To perform our tests, we utilize the two-break LM unit root test of Lee and Strazicich (2003) and endogenously determine two distinct structural breaks in level and trend for each country. Despite including both OECD and non-OECD countri...

The validation of probability calibration is an inherently difficult task. We develop a testing procedure for credit-scoring models. The models comprise two components to check whether the ex-ante probabilities support the ex-post frequencies. The first component tests the level of the probability calibration under dependencies. In the long term, the number of events should equal the sum of ass...

In this paper we provide analytical, simulation, and empirical evidence on a test of equal economic value from competing predictive models of asset returns. We define economic value using the concept of a performance fee — the amount an investor would be willing to pay to have access to an alternative predictive model that is used to make investment decisions. We establish that this fee can be ...

In this paper, we propose new tests for threshold cointegration in the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The indicators in the threshold model are based on either a nonstationary or stationary threshold variable. The cointegrating vector in this paper is not pre-specified. We adopt a supremum Wald type test to account for the so-called Davies problem. The asymptotic null distributions...