This paper revisits the yield spread's usefulness for predicting future real GDP growth. We show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We find that both factors are relevant for predicting real GDP growth but the respective contributions differ. We investigate whether the cyclical behav...

In this paper the need for employing a data reduction algorithm in using digital graphic systems to display biomedical signals is firstly addressed and then, some such algorithms are compared from different points of view (such as complexity, real time feasibility, etc.). Subsequently, it is concluded that Turning Point algorithm can be a suitable one for real time implementation on a microproc...

This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data. The model can be applied to …nd real-time estimates of GDP, in‡ation, une...

We conduct both an approximate Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and an exact Bayesian analysis to incorporate break date uncertainty of the mean growth rate into the trend-cycle decomposition of U.S. real GDP. Our results suggest a structural break in mean growth rate of U.S. real GDP in 1970s. Comparing to the models assuming fixed break date, we find higher uncertainty in the posterior density ...

*Correspondence: Daniel Elliott Campbell , Atlantic Ecology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA e-mail: [email protected] Energy Systems Language models of the resource base for the U.S. economy and of economic exchange were us...

The global pandemic, COVID-19, has exacerbated the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of economy since its outbreak in December 2019. One most affected economies, due to is US economy, currently crippled by an increased number COVID-19 related deaths, layoffs, reduced work hours, and other natural disasters, such as winter storms. Hence, it imperative that damage done GDP evaluated meticulousl...