This paper reports an empirical study of communication issues concerning climate forecasts. Students in a professional master's degree program in environmental science and policy participated in the study as prospective policy makers. Participants viewed a set of currently issued precipitation forecast maps, and answered questions designed to assess, in the context relevant to agricultural and ...

This study explores the ability of groups to forecast and establish judgmental confidence intervals in time series extrapolation. Thirty-six three-person groups were used to evaluate four different group interaction processes. In addition to staticized, nominal group technique and consensus processes, the study utilizes a modified consensus process, where a selected group member completes the t...

It is well-known that varying model parameters in a NWP model can affect multiple forecast parameters; but exactly how, is difficult to assess. The difficulty arises because of the nonlinearities and interactions inherent in the model. In other words, a change in a single model parameter can affect a number of forecast parameters, and the affect itself depends on the values of all the other mod...

A forecast is just the set of probabilities attached to a set of future events. In order to understand a forecast, all one needs to do is to interpret those two bits of information. Unfortunately, there are pitfalls to communicating each element, so that the user of a forecast understands what its producer means. One source of potential problems is ambiguity regarding the event being predicted ...

We compare the Bank of England’s Inflation Report (IR) quarterly forecasts for growth and inflation to real-time forecasts using a variety of statistical forecasting models that have previously been found useful as forecasting benchmarks. These include linear and non-linear univariate models, and VARs. The results reveal the well-known difficulty of forecasting in a stable macroeconomic environ...

Many techniques have been developed to measure the difficulty of forecasting data from an observed time series. This paper introduces a measure which we call the "forecast entropy" designed to measure the predictability of a time series. We use attractors reconstructed from the time series and the distributions in the regular and tangent spaces of the data which comprise the attractor. We then ...

– The growth of the Internet, wireless mobility, and economic variability all contribute to the difficulty of forecasting the demand for which an optical transport network should be planned. It is therefore of interest to know how various architectural options inherently withstand changes in demand pattern relative to a forecast. In this study, we focus on the span restoration (SR) and shared b...

I examine whether TMT between-member and within-member functional diversity affect management earnings forecast accuracy. Between-member refers to the heterogeneity of experts on a aggregate breadth members. find that both types are positively associated with Further cross-sectional analyses show these positive associations significant only when firms face greater information uncertainty, TMTs ...

This research analyzed the influence of the differences in the forecast accuracy of fundamental values on the financial market. As a result of intensive experiments in the market, we made the following interesting findings: 1 improvements in forecast accuracy of fundamentalists can contribute to an increase in the number of fundamentalists; 2 certain situations might occur, according to the lev...