Using the Johansen cointegration technique, we find empirical evidence of long run comovements between five national stock market indexes and measures of aggregate real activity including the real oil price, real consumption, real money, and real output. Real returns on these indexes are typically related to transitory deviations from the long run relationship and to changes in the macroeconomi...

This paper investigates the relationship between financial development and economic growth for UK for the period 1965-2007 using a vector error correction model (VECM). The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run relationship between these variables applying the Johansen cointegration analysis. Granger causality tests indicated that there is a causal relationship between financial deve...

We show that the order of integration of a vector autoregressive process is equal to the difference between the multiplicity of the unit root in the characteristic equation and the multiplicity of the unit root in the adjoint matrix polynomial. The equivalence with the standard I(1) and I(2) conditions (Johansen, 1996) is proved and polynomial cointegration discussed in the general setup.

The main objective of this study is to determine the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions with other variables such as economic growth, energy consumption, population and gross capital formation in case Philippines set during period 1976 2014. This paper employs various econometric techniques: Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Johansen Cointegration Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) e...

The main purpose of this paper is analyses the short and long run relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in some MENA countries. The data cover the period from 1971-2000 (and for I.R. IRAN 1 959-2003).The relationship between these variables will be analyses in short and long run by using Johansen cointegration tests, ECM, and Granger causality test. The empirical evidence provid...

Quantile regression has important applications in risk management, portfolio optimization, and asset pricing. The current paper studies estimation, inference and …nancial applications of quantile regression with cointegrated time series. In addition, a new cointegration model with varying coe¢ cients is proposed. In the proposed model, the value of cointegrating coe¢ cients may be a¤ected by th...

The study investigates the effect of macroeconomic determinants on the performance of the Indian Stock Market using monthly data over the period January 1991 to December 2011 for eight macroeconomic variables, namely, Interest Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Index of Industrial Production, Money Supply, Gold Price, Silver Price & Oil Price, and two stock market indices namely Sensex and S&P CNX...

Price discovery function analyses the dynamics of futures and spot price behavior in an asset’s intertemporal dimensions. The present study examines bullion, metal, energy commodity prices through Granger causality Johansen–Juselius cointegration tests. test results show bidirectional between returns for gold, silver, aluminum, lead, nickel, zinc. Johansen shows that are long-run equilibrium pa...

This paper analyzes long-run co-movements between international real estate stock markets and between regions based on bivariate and multivariate tests for cointegration. While the topic has been analyzed in previous studies such as Gallo and Zhang (2009) and Yunus (2009) among others, this paper is of significant contribution to existing studies since we compare results from different cointegr...

A systems cointegration rank test is proposed that is applicable for vector autoregressive (VAR) processes with a structural shift at unknown time. The structural shift is modeled as a simple shift in the level of the process. It is proposed to estimate the break date first on the basis of a full unrestricted VAR model. Two alternative estimators are considered and their asymptotic properties a...