This paper provides historical context for the relationship between expected and realized inflation. We begin with a discussion of early theoretical thought about how inflation expectations are formed. Then, we discuss survey- asset- based measures assess their empirical Expected strongly correlated over long samples, but short samples correlations can weaken. Lastly, to better understand subtl...

Based on the current serious inflation problem at home and abroad, this thesis uses the data of broad money supply and monthly price during 1998 to 2008 and makes an empirical study on Chinese inflation time lag. Through the estimation of the Polynomial Distributed Lags Model, the author concludes that: money supply’s change has significant time lag effect on price’s change, and the lag time is...

this paper investigates the forecasting performance of different time-varying bvar models for iranian inflation. forecast accuracy of a bvar model with litterman’s prior compared with a time-varying bvar model (a version introduced by doan et al., 1984); and a modified time-varying bvar model, where the autoregressive coefficients are held constant and only the deterministic components are allo...

Inflation depends generically on current and expected monetary and fiscal policies. There are three ways to carry $1 today into the future: money, bonds, and real assets. That dollar’s purchasing power varies inversely with the price level. The real return on money depends on the flow of transactions services it supports and the expected inflation rate; the analogous return on bonds is the nomi...