This paper surveys the implications of uncertainty for the design of monetary policy. Among the topics discussed are the impact of imperfect or noisy information on the performance of simple rules, the performance of rules that are robust to the exogenous disturbance processes, the effects of parameter uncertainty, and the implications of robust control. The analysis is conducted using a new Ke...

• Bone mineral density (BMD) is used as an indicator of osteoporosis. BMD is measured and quantified by T-score, whose units are standard deviations relative to that of young, healthy adults (Young Adult Mean [YAM]). The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) defines osteoporosis as a T-score of -2.5 or lower, i.e., worse. Severe osteoporosis is defined as a T-score of -2.5 or lower, and p...

This study seeks to disentangle claims of institutional and organizational learning theories and to shed light on the impact of Knightian (environmental) uncertainty in discovery opportunities. This article suggests, and fi nds empirical support for, the concept that emerging professional service industries retain high levels of causal ambiguity. High uncertainty interferes with institutional t...

The physical modelling and simulation of systems with inherent uncertainty still poses significant issues when using Modelica and its tools. At present, both language and tools are fundamentally deterministic and offer limited support for handling uncertainty; this limits the scope of using Modelica in certain domains, e.g. feedback control systems. We propose a framework for incorporating unce...

Anticipatory algorithms for online stochastic optimization have been shown very effective in a variety of areas, including logistics, reservation systems, and scheduling. For such applications which typically feature purely exogenous uncertainty, the one-step anticipatory algorithm was shown theoretically to be close to optimal when the stochasticity of the problem, measured by the anticipatory...

We use forward-looking and exogenous measures of output price uncertainty to examine the effect of price uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, risk management, and debt issuance. The effects of uncertainty vary significantly by firm size. When faced with high price uncertainty, large firms increase their hedging intensity but do not lower capital investment or debt issuance. In contrast...

Uncertainty is important to appreciate in the outputs of complex and dynamic urban systems. This study demonstrates three methods for uncertainty propagation in transportation and land use models: Local Sensitivity Analysis with Interaction (LSAI), Monte Carlo (MC) methods, and Bayesian Melding (BM) method. Two case study settings are used to illustrate how these methods work, allowing for inte...

Title of Document: UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION: ADVANCED VOLATILITY APPROACHES AND ENSEMBLE METHODS YANRU ZHANG, PH.D, 2015 Directed By: ALI HAGHANI,PROFESSOR DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING Travel time effectively measures freeway traffic conditions. Easy access to this information provides the potential to alleviate traffic congestion and to increase t...