In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternati...

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that a) the futures market leads in the process of price discovery and that b) t...

In a competitive electricity market traditional demand side management options offering customers curtailable service at reduced rates are replaced by voluntary customer responses to electricity spot prices. In this new environment, customers wishing to ensure a fixed electricity price while taking advantage of their flexibility to curtail loads can do so by purchasing a forward electricity con...

We develop a fundamental model for spot electricity prices, based on stochastic processes for underlying factors (fuel prices, power demand and generation capacity availability), as well as a parametric form for the bid stack function which maps these price drivers to the power price. Using observed bid data, we find high correlations between the movements of bids and the corresponding fuel pri...

Under spot electricity pricing the price of electricity represents actual demand and supply equilibrium conditions and consumers respond to price variations so as to achieve the best cost-service tradeoff over a given time period. Using a decision modelling approach developed for prescribing consumer response to a varying electricity price, the case of space conditioning usage is analyzed in de...

In this paper capacity withholding in an oligopolistic electricity market that all Generation Companies (GenCos) bid in a Cournot model is analyzed and the capacity withheld index, the capacity distortion index and the price distortion index are obtained and formulated. Then a new index, Distortion-Withheld Index (DWI), is proposed in order to measure the potential ability of market for capacit...

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that a) the futures market leads in the process of price discovery and that b) t...

Manufactures often rely on different types of long term contracts with established suppliers to procure goods often involving delivery lead times; however, the emergence of online B2B markets provides an additional procurement flexibility. Manufacturers can interact directly with the market either through spot transactions or claims contingent on commodity prices. In particular, we explore the ...

in general, energy prices, such as those of crude oil, are affected by deterministic events such as seasonal changes as well as non-deterministic events such as geopolitical events. it is the non-deterministic events which cause the prices to vary randomly and makes price prediction a difficult task. one could argue that these random changes act like noise which effects the deterministic variat...