An important question in research on eye movements in reading is whether word frequency and word predictability have additive or interactive effects on fixation durations. A fair number of studies have reported only additive effects of the frequency and predictability of a target word on reading times on that word, failing to show significant interactions. Recently, however, Hand, Miellet, O'Do...

Pitch and timing information work hand in hand to create a coherent piece of music; but what happens when this information goes against the norm? Relationships between musical expectancy and emotional responses were investigated in a study conducted with 40 participants: 20 musicians and 20 non-musicians. Participants took part in one of two behavioural paradigms measuring continuous expectancy...

Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation ...

The game of football demands new computational approaches to measure individual and collective performance. Understanding the phenomena involved in the game may foster the identification of strengths and weaknesses, not only of each player, but also of the whole team. The development of assertive quantitative methodologies constitutes a key element in sports training. In football, the predictab...

This paper describes a detailed study of aggregated network traffic using time series analysis techniques. The study is based on three sets of packet traces: 175 short-period WAN traces from the NLANR PMA archive (NLANR), 34 long-period WAN traces from NLANR archive (AUCKLAND), and the four Bellcore LAN and WAN traces (BC). We binned the packets with different bin sizes to produce a set of time...

A new metric that quantifies the predictability of financial time series is proposed. Time series predictability provides a measure of how well a time series can be modeled by a particular method, or how well a prediction can be made. This new time series predictability metric is developed based on the Kaboudan η –metric. The new metrics, based on Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural ...

In a regression study of conversational speech, we show that frequency, contextual predictability, and repetition have separate contributions to word duration, despite their substantial correlations. We also found that contentand function-word durations are affected differently by their frequency and predictability. Content words are shorter when more frequent, and shorter when repeated, while ...

__________________________________________________________________________________ This paper makes indirect inference about the time-variation in expected stock returns by comparing unconditional sample variances to estimates of expected conditional variances. The evidence reveals more predictability as more information is used, and no evidence that predictability has diminished in recent year...

Using Monte Carlo simulations, I show that typical out-of-sample forecast exercises for stock returns are unlikely to produce any evidence of predictability, even when there is in fact predictability and the correct model is estimated. JEL classification: C15; C53; G14.

This work introduces a framework to study the network formed by the autonomic component of heart rate variability (cardiac processη) and the amplitude of the different electroencephalographic waves (brain processes δ, θ, α, σ, β) during sleep. The framework exploits multivariate linear models to decompose the predictability of any given target process into measures of self-, causal and interact...