Abstract Landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) are the most devastating disaster to affect U.S., while demonstration of skillful subseasonal (between 10 days and one season) prediction LTCs is less promising. Understanding mechanisms governing variation TC activity fundamental improving its forecast, which critical interest decision-makers insurance industry. This work reveals three localized at...

Using historical data compiled by the Climate Research Unit, spatial and temporal analysis, trend empirical orthogonal function (EOF) Taylor diagram analysis were applied to test ability of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models accurately simulate annual mean surface air temperature in central Asia from perspective average state variability. Results show that e...

Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of ENSO, compare data with models, and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally-related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can then be used to diagnose the u...

[1] Changes to stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) over the coming century, as predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) chemistry climate model [Atmospheric Model With Transport and Chemistry (AMTRAC)], are investigated in detail. Two sets of integrations, each a three-member ensemble, are analyzed. The first set is driven with observed climate forcings between 1960 and 20...

Space-time spectral analysis methods and their applications to large-scale atmospheric waves are reviewed. Space-time spectral analysis resolves transient waves into eastward and westward moving components and is mathematically analogous to rotary spectral analysis which resolves twodimensional velocity vectors into clockwise and anticlockwise components. Space-time spectral analysis can also r...

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature, and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon (C), water, and nitrogen (N) cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in curr...