Economics prefers complete explanations: general over partial equilibrium, microfoundational over aggregate. Similarly, probabilistic accounts of causation frequently prefer greater detail to less as in typical resolutions of Simpson's paradox. Strategies of causal refinement equally aim to distinguish direct from indirect causes. Yet, there are countervailing practices in economics. Representa...

Many applications call for learning causal models from relational data. We investigate Relational Causal Models (RCM) under relational counterparts of adjacency-faithfulness and orientation-faithfulness, yielding a simple approach to identifying a subset of relational d-separation queries needed for determining the structure of an RCM using d-separation against an unrolled DAG representation of...

John-Mark A. Allen, Jonathan Barrett, Dominic C. Horsman, Ciarán M. Lee, and Robert W. Spekkens Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Wolfson Building, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QD, United Kingdom Department of Physics, University of Durham, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, Uni...

Covariance information can help an algorithm search for predictive causal models and estimate the strengths of causal relationships. This information should not be discarded after conditional independence constraints are identi ed, as is usual in contemporary causal induction algorithms. Our fbd algorithm combines covariance information with an e ective heuristic to build predictive causal mode...

Models of effective connectivity characterize the influence that neuronal populations exert over each other. Additionally, some approaches, for example Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) and variants of Structural Equation Modelling, describe how effective connectivity is modulated by experimental manipulations. Mathematically, both are based on bilinear equations, where the bilinear term models th...

We describe an approach for performing qualitative, systems-level causal analyses on biosimulation models that leverages semantics-based modeling formats, formal ontology, and automated inference. The approach allows users to quickly investigate how a qualitative perturbation to an element within a model's network (an increment or decrement) propagates throughout the modeled system. To support ...

When is a statistical dependency between two variables best explained by the supposition that one of these variables causes the other, as opposed to the supposition that there is a (possibly unmeasured) common cause acting on both variables? In this paper, we describe an approach towards model specification developed more fully in our book Discovering Cuud Structure, and illustrate its applicat...

Markov networks and Bayesian networks are effective graphic representations of the dependencies embedded in probabilistic models. It is well known that independencies captured by Markov networks (called graph-isomorphs) have a finite axiomatic characterization. This paper, however, shows that independencies captured by Bayesian networks (called causal models) have no axiomatization by using eve...

Galles and Pearl [1998] claimed that “for recursive models, the causal model framework does not add any restrictions to counterfactuals, beyond those imposed by Lewis’s [possible-worlds] framework.” This claim is examined carefully, with the goal of clarifying the exact relationship between causal models and Lewis’s framework. Recursive models are shown to correspond precisely to a subclass of ...