نتایج جستجو برای: expected inflation by 3 lags
تعداد نتایج: 7900326 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of different time-varying BVAR models for Iranian inflation. Forecast accuracy of a BVAR model with Litterman’s prior compared with a time-varying BVAR model (a version introduced by Doan et al., 1984); and a modified time-varying BVAR model, where the autoregressive coefficients are held constant and only the deterministic components are allo...
depending on the assumptions that are made in new keynesian models, one can attain different new keynesian phillips curves. in this study, three different new keynesian phillips curves and two different central bank behavioural functions are presented which leaves six new keynesian dsge models to study. the purpose of this study is the comparison of these six models and selecting the best model...
The New Keynesian sticky-price model has become increasingly popular for monetary-policy analysis. However, there have been conflicting results on the empirical performance of the model. In this paper, I attempt to reconcile these conflicting claims by examining various specifications of the model within the context of a single framework. I find that the New Keynesian model does not fit the U.S...
We decompose the term structure of expected equity returns into (1) the real short rate, (2) a premium for holding real long-term bonds, or the real duration premium, the excess returns of nominal long-term bonds over real bonds which reflects (3) expected inflation and (4) inflation risk, and (5) a real cashflow risk premium, which is the excess return of equity over nominal bonds. The shape o...
the subject of monetary policy orientation and tailoring a framework within which the credibility and desirability of the policies and the policy makers is enhanced, while the most important goal of policies, i.e reaching to and preserving a low and stable inflation rate is achieved, has recently been a controversial issue for a large number of economists. in fact the necessity arised since the...
This paper evaluates inflation targeting in the context of recent theoretical developments concerning the issue of creditability. The first part of the paper argues that the problems of operational and political credibility inherent in a reputation based inflation targeting policy would be avoided by a rule based inflation expectation targeting policy. The second part of the paper demonstrates ...
Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on Taylor-style staggered contracts can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This paper presents some general theoretical results about Taylor-style models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelati...
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