Shafer and Vovk have shown how to base probability theory on game theory. In this framework, we give probabilities an empirical predictive meaning by means of a form Cournot's principle, which says that reality will not permit gambler win disproportionately the capital he risks. How does principle apply causal interpretation graphical models?

This paper treats the calculation of the effect of an intervention (also called causal effect) on a variable from a combination of observational data and some theoretical assumptions. Observational data implies that the modeler has no way to do experiments to assess the effect of one variable on some others, instead he possesses data collected by observing variables in the domain he is investig...