BACKGROUND With rising health spending, predicting costs is essential to identify patients for interventions. Many of the existing approaches have moderate predictive ability, which may result, in part, from not considering potentially meaningful changes in spending over time. Group-based trajectory modeling could be used to classify patients into dynamic long-term spending patterns. OBJECTIV...

We study the demand response to non-linear price schedules using data on insurance contracts and prescription drug purchases in Medicare Part D. We exploit the kink in individuals' budget set created by the famous "donut hole," where insurance becomes discontinuously much less generous on the margin, to provide descriptive evidence of the drug purchase response to a price increase. We then spec...

Several international conservation organizations have recently produced global priority maps to guide conservation activities and spending in their own and other conservation organizations. Surprisingly, it is not possible to directly evaluate the relationship between priorities and spending within a given organization because none of the organizations with global priority models tracks how the...

Determinants of Social Spending in Latin America and the Caribbean Evelyne Huber, Thomas Mustillo, and John D. Stephens University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill We examine the determinants of social expenditure in an unbalanced pooled time series analysis for 22 Latin American and Caribbean countries for the period 1970 to 2000. The data are from a new data set assembled by the co-authors and ...

In this paper, I replicate Erikson and Palfrey (2000) who propose that the simultaneity problem in measuring the effects of candidate spending can be resolved by restricting the sample to close elections. Vote-on-spending effects, which vary with the expected closeness of the election outcome in a systematic way, determine the extent of simultaneity bias. The simultaneity bias becomes progressi...