Foresight Studies analyze emerging issues and trends with the objective of quantifying the research challenge and the potential impact for agricultural research.

We analyze strategic social environments where coalitions can form through binding or nonbinding agreements and actions of a coalition may impose externalities upon the welfare of the rest of the players. We define a solution concept that (1) captures the perfect foresight of the players that has been overlooked in the literature (e.g., Harsanyi [10] and Chwe [6]) and (2) identifies the coaliti...

Evolution has no foresight, but produces ad hoc solutions by tinkering with available variation. A new study demonstrates how evolution nevertheless prepares organisms for the future by increasing their evolvability.

The present report was commissioned by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) during the period March-April 2005. The aim of the study is to contribute to the pool of knowledge on foresight in Europe (FISTERA project) with updated information on the latest developments related to the Foresight programmes or initiatives on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in ...

This document reports on the 18th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI-03), held in Acapulco during 9th–15th August 2003.

Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said [Brooks, 1986], are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behavior of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. How indeed should we design our models to generate environmental foresight, to detect, in particular, threats to our environment lying “just beyond the horizon”?...

WHAT IS HINDSIGHT BIAS? In 1972, President Richard Nixon made a historic trip to China, which had become virtually a closed country following the 1949 revolution. There was intense speculation on what Nixon might achieve. In a now-famous study, Baruch Fischhoff and Ruth Beyth (1975) asked their students to estimate probabilities for events relating to his visit. An example: “The USA will establ...

We train students as retrospective observers who specialize in evidence-based post hoc analysis. Building on action research and a cry for relevance, we witness the emergence of engaged scholarship and focus on the present and ongoing affairs. However, the future appears to be virtually neglected in the IS management curricula and organizational studies. In keeping with the theme of the meeting...

Unpredictability has two main sources: epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability. When disruptive and downstream innovation become frequent, ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fails to grasp...