Possibilistic causal models have been proposed as an approach for prediction and diagnosis based on uncertain causal relations. However, the only way to develop the causal models is to acquire the possibilistic knowledge from the experts. The paper proposes an approach to develop the models from a dataset including causes and effects. It first develops a probabilistic causal model, then transfo...

The premise of this paper is that the technically successful implementation of a complex IT does not always result in its effective use. Through the analysis of case study data related to an ERP implementation within a public organization, a causal model is proposed. This model, inductively developed, reveals key factors leading to the construct of “quality of use.” It suggests that the inclusi...

Poetry is a complex art form. This research is focused on exploring and understanding poetry better by using deep learning. On one hand, there are many different styles of writing a poem, and on the other only a small fraction of poems end up passing the test of time and becoming popular. The objective of this work is to find the causal relationship (if any) between the poem style and it’s popu...

Many current heuristics for domain-independent planning, such as Bonet and Geffner’s additive heuristic and Hoffmann and Nebel’s FF heuristic, are based on delete relaxations. They estimate the goal distance of a search state by approximating the solution cost in a relaxed task where negative consequences of operator applications are ignored. Helmert’s causal graph heuristic, on the other hand,...

Established guidelines for causal inference in epidemiological studies may be inappropriate for genetic associations. A consensus process was used to develop guidance criteria for assessing cumulative epidemiologic evidence in genetic associations. A proposed semiquantitative index assigns three levels for the amount of evidence, extent of replication, and protection from bias, and also generat...

Turkey has been suffering from separatist terrorism and the political conflict it implies since the mid-1980s, both of which are believed to have a negative impact on economic welfare. This article investigates the economic costs of PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) terrorism, particularly in the Eastern and Southeastern provinces of Turkey by invoking the synthetic control method. We create a syn...

We address the problem of inferring the causal relation between two variables by comparing the least-squares errors of the predictions in both possible causal directions. Under the assumption of an independence between the function relating cause and effect, the conditional noise distribution, and the distribution of the cause, we show that the errors are smaller in causal direction if both var...

The modern formulation of the instrumental variable methods initiated the valuable interactions between economics and statistics literatures of causal inference and fueled new innovations of the idea. It helped resolving the long-standing confusion that the statisticians used to have on the method, and encouraged the economists to rethink how to make use of instrumental variables in policy anal...

We rely on both our own observations and on others’ testimony when making causal inferences. To integrate these sources of information we must consider an informant’s statements about the world, her expressed level of certainty, her previous accuracy, and perhaps her apparent self-knowledge – how accurately she conveys her own certainty. It can be difficult to tease apart the contributions of a...

We studied the effect of adjunct displays on recall in an expository text (based on McCrudden, Schraw, Lehman, & Poliquin, 2007) in order to find out which means of display aided pupils in the last years of secondary school to recall information. We included four conditions in the experiment: text only, text and causal diagram, text and images and causal diagram only. Participants were checked ...