All of us at the SMC office hope you had a wonderful holiday season. This Fall has been busy as usual with field work that is actually a bit ahead of schedule. Be sure to note the date and location of our Spring Meeting and the First International Precision Forestry Symposium in the Conferences and Meeting Section. An announcement with registration and program details will be mailed in early 20...

Robust analyses of noisy, stage-structured, irregularly spaced, field-scale data incorporating multiple sources of variability and nonlinear dynamics remain very limited, hindering understanding of how small-scale studies relate to large-scale population dynamics. We used a novel, complementary Bayesian and frequentist state-space model analysis to ask how density, temperature, plant nitrogen, ...

Although syndromic surveillance systems using nonclinical data have been implemented in the United States, the approach has yet to be tested in France. We present the results of the first model based on drug sales that detects the onset of influenza season and forecasts its trend. Using weekly lagged sales of a selected set of medications, we forecast influenzalike illness (ILI) incidence at th...

saving in irrigation water is important in the early season of sugar beet. the effect of early season deficit irrigation on the sugar beet growth indexes was investigated in kabotarabad agricultural research station (esfahan) in 1998. the soil texture was silty clay and the experiment design was randomized complete block with 4 relications. six irrigation regimes were applied after. 1) 100 mm (...

The problem of prediction of 24-hour ahead power consumption in a small power region is a very important practical problem in power engineering. The most characteristic feature of the small region is large diversity of power consumption in the succeeding hours of the day making the prediction problem very hard. On the other side the accurate forecast of the power need for each of 24 hours of th...

Delays caused by uncertainty in weather forecasts can be reduced by improving traffic flow management decisions. This paper presents a methodology for traffic flow management under uncertainty in convective weather forecasts. An algorithm for assigning departure delays and reroutes to aircraft is presented. Departure delay and route assignment are executed at multiple stages, during which, upda...

OBJECTIVE To determine the economic burden of malaria in a rural Tanzanian setting and identify any differences by socioeconomic status and season. METHODS Interviews of 557 households in south eastern Tanzania between May and December 2004, on consumption and malaria-related costs. RESULTS Malaria-related expenses were significantly higher in the dry, non-malarious season than in the rainy...

This paper explores the potential for seasonal prediction of hydrological variables that are potentially useful for reservoir operation of the Three Gorges Dam, China. The seasonal flow of the primary inflow season and the peak annual flow are investigated at Yichang hydrological station, a proxy for inflows to the Three Gorges Dam. Building on literature and diagnostic results, a prediction mo...