It is emphasized that the shocks in structural vector autoregressions are only identified up to sign and it is pointed out that this feature can result in very misleading confidence intervals for impulse responses if simulation methods such as Bayesian or bootstrap methods are used. The confidence intervals heavily depend on which variable is used for fixing the sign of the initial responses. I...

A dynamic factor model is introduced which may be viewed as an alternative to vector autoregressions in the treatment of cointegration. An obvious way of introducing dynamics in the standard factor analysis is to allow a realization of the common factors at a specific time interval to work its way through to the observed variables in several time periods. A problem arises however, when represen...

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the importance of sticky prices in accounting for the variations and the persistence in real exchange rates. Vector autoregressions with five variables from two countries that always include the United States are estimated. Restrictions are imposed to identify a global shock, and two sets of country specific output shocks. One set of shocks is asso...

This paper evaluates VAR models designed to analyse the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the United States by considering three issues: specification, identification, and the effect of the omission of the long-term interest rate. Specification analysis suggests that only VAR models estimated on a single monetary regime feature parameters stability and do not show signs of mis-specifica...

Using the threshold structural VAR model, this paper examines the multiheterogeneity impacts of international oil price shocks on Chinese stock market in the background of financialization. The research finds: (1) the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns are different across sectors and the responses of stock returns are larger in bear markets. The nonlinear effects of oil supply shocks...

In this paper we study a classical option-based portfolio strategy which minimizes the Value-at-Risk of the hedged position in a continuous time, regime-switching jump-diffusion market, by using Fourier Transform methods. However, the analysis of this hedging strategy, as well as the computational technique for its implementation, is fairly general, i.e. it can be applied to any dynamical model...

We report evidence that the relation between the financial-sector share, private saving, and growth in the United States in 1948–96 is characterized by several regime shifts. The finding is based on vector autoregressions on quarterly data that allow for Markov switching regimes. The evidence may be interpreted as support for a hypothesis that the relation between financial development and grow...

This paper examines the dynamic effects of oil price shocks in addition to the aggregate supply and demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in four sample economies: Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. We aim to discover whether oil price shocks play a crucial role in explaining output and domestic price fluctuation in small emerging economies after 1990s. We are also keen to assess...

We use generalized method of moments to estimate a rational expectations aggregate demand/aggregate supply macroeconomic model for five European economies and the United States. Our aim is to examine whether supply or demand shocks have predominated in these economies during the post-war era, and whether shocks of either type have been primarily temporary or permanent in nature. The estimation ...

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of monetary union membership will depend on the extent to which price and output shocks are correlated acr...