This quantitative research aims to measure the factors that affect economy in 10 ASEAN countries 2014-2020. The method used is panel vector autoregressive (PVAR). results of were divided into several tests. First, causality test shows GDP has an effect on inflation and money supply with a one-way causality. Second, PVAR significant unemployment rate at lags 1 2. follow-up test, namely IRF, shoc...

This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Orán, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weat...

We investigated the time lags and the evolution of the cross spectra of Z source GX 5-1, observed by the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), when it is in the horizontal branch oscillations. We showed that the time lags of 3 horizontal branch oscillations are related to the position on the hardness intensity diagram. All of the three QPOs were shown to have hard time lags. However on the cross ...

In superstring theories, there exist various dilaton and modulus fields which masses are expected to be of the order of the gravitino mass m3/2. These fields lead to serious cosmological difficulties, so called “cosmological moduli problem”, because a large number of moduli particles are produced as the coherent oscillations after the primordial inflation. We make a comprehensive study whether ...

We consider the problem of minimizing the makespan in a flowshop involving maximal and minimal time lags, denoted by Fm|θ, θ|Cmax. Time lag constraints generalize the classical precedence constraints between operations: minimal (respectively maximal) time lags indeed specify that the time elapsed between two operations must be lower(respectively upper-) bounded. We assume that such constraints ...

The cosmological evolution of the string landscape is expected to consist of multiple stages of old inflation with large cosmological constant ending by tunneling. Old inflation has a well known graceful exit problem as the observable universe becomes empty, devoid of any entropy. Simultaneously, in the quest for reheating the right degrees of freedom, it is important that the final stage of in...

Should inflation targeting involve some leaning against the wind? Sweden provides a case study, since the Riksbank has been leaning against the wind quite aggressively since 2010, stating concerns about risks associated with household indebtedness. The cost is high of this policy, in the form of inflation much below the target and a higher unemployment, arguably as much 1.2 percentage points hi...

We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom over the period 1985-2004. The proposed model describes UK inflation dynamics considerably better than does...

Life insurers are exposed to deflation risk: falling prices could lead to insufficient investment returns, and inflation-indexed protections could make insurers vulnerable to deflation. In this spirit, this paper proposes a market-based methodology for measuring deflation risk based on a discrete framework: the latter accounts for the real interest rate, the inflation index level, its condition...

Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components. A key feature of this model is that the trend may be viewed as the Fed’s evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. We provide a new way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), based on forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. These fore...